TED’S EXCELLENT ADVENTURE

Another day another wild rumor hits the fan. The latest from the Oakland A’s Conspiracy Files actually gets its start Saturday. Ted Lilly pitches a bullpen session and tells reports that he never pitches the day after throwing a side session in the bullpen (what an odd thing to say)... Rich Harden cuts his bullpen throwing session short due to back spasms. Ken Macha states that Harden will still pitch on Sunday.

It’s peculiar that:
Lilly went and told reporters he never pitches the day after a bullpen session.
Prior to…
Harden revealing he has had back troubles before after cutting a bullpen session short. The day before a start, Rich Harden is throwing, but Lilly never would.
Then…
Ken Macha states emphatically that Harden would pitch on Sunday, not the more veteran Lilly, even after the A’s kept Keith Foulke out of two straight games due to back spasms last week.
Oddly…
Ted Lilly is in a contract year, so increasing his value in September is not such a bad thing if the A’s lose him to free agency.

The story comes out that Rich Harden was unable to go Sunday morning. Hearing this, Ted Lilly walked into Ken Macha’s office and made his case to start yesterday in lieu of, well, anyone the A’s could string together. Lilly ends up pitching six innings of scoreless baseball, walking 3 and striking out 7. Further, Ramon Hernandez comes out to catch Lilly (Adam Melhuse is not allowed to catch Lilly). A day after blowing two plays at the plate and having his right elbow reconditioned via Ben Davis in a home plate collision, Hernandez the Warrior is born. Then, to dabble the thick drama further along your nose, Ramon got plunked in his left elbow in the second inning and refuses to come out, wanting to "stay in there for Lilly". Greg Papa and Ray Fosse won’t shut up about how Lilly is the second coming of Randy Johnson, the Warrior Ramon and the Oakland A’s clubhouse is a frat house suddenly out from under double secret probation. So much so, that injured Rich Harden shows up to the post game festivities at the Pyramid Ale House after the game.

What the hell is going on in Oaklandville?

We’ve been accused of Ted Lilly bashing before.

Please.

Lilly-bashing...what looking at the stats? Analyzing the facts?

Ted Lilly is still -2 RSAA for the year. That's how bad he has been even with his good September. RSAA (Runs Saved Against Average), pitcher against the average (go get Lee Sinins’s daily stats and see for yourself).

Check the selection of Baseball Prospectus stats and see for yourself.
Ted Lilly 9.1 SNW (9/15)
SNW = Support-Neutral Wins -- the pitcher's expected number of wins, assuming he had league-average support.


Ted Lilly 9.5 SNL (9/15)
SNL = Support-Neutral Losses -- same as SNW except for losses.


Ted Lilly -.1 SNVA (9/15)
SNVA = Support-Neutral Value Added -- the expected number of games the pitcher would be worth to an average team in the standings, over what a league-average pitcher would be worth.


Ted Lilly 1.2 SNWAR (9/15)
SNWAR -- "Support-Neutral Wins Above Replacement-level": the number of SNWs a pitcher has above what a .425 pitcher would get in the same number of (Support-Neutral) decisions.


Who did Lilly face in his last six starts?


Aug 25th v Toronto (.523 winning pct as of 9/22)
6 1/3 innings pitched


August 30th v Tampa Bay (.387 winning pct as of 9/22)
6 2/3 innings pitched


September 5th v Tampa Bay (.387 winning pct as of 9/22 )
6 innings pitched


September 10th v Anaheim (.468 winning pct as of 9/22 )
5 1/3 innings pitched


September 15th v Anaheim (.468 winning percentage as of 9/22 )
5 innings pitched


September 21st v Seattle (.571 winning percentage as of 9/22)
6 innings pitched


Two wins against teams with winning records and not a single quality start amongst the six wins. Lilly is averaging less than six innings per start. That's not helping the bullpen.


Yes, it's great that it appears Lilly is finally listening. Ramon Hernandez is making Lilly throw his fastball more and it is paying off.


The fact is, Lilly is still a notch below league average. That's not good. You can chalk up the last three weeks to a lot of things, luck might be one of them. If Lilly can keep this up, that's great. But don't be surprised if he falters.


You don't label an entire season by three weeks of work.


The A's have been babying Lilly all year with extra days of rest. That shouldn't have to happen for a major league team. The A's say they are worried that Lilly has never pitched this many innings before. Ted Lilly is 27years old. Rich Harden is 21 and Justin Duchscherer is 25 and the A's aren't holding Harden and Duchscherer back.


Though, the back spasm virus thing is starting to sound fishy.