WINGING IT

Our prediction for Game 1:

Boston 2 - Athletics 5
Pedro and Hudson both pitch into the 7th, Hudson leaves with 3-2 lead.
Game hinges on crucial at-bats by Eric Chavez and Scott Hatteberg.
A's get insurance off Red Sox bullpen.

We base this very little on actual stats or analysis, but an overwhelming feeling most of the universe has not looked at how well Hudson matches up with Boston and that the A's are experienced in the playoffs.

Here's another little point; the Network Associates Coliseum is a Ques Tec facility and a very good (supposedly) umpiring crew will be in prime time on national television. How many strikes off the plate, Pedro strikes, do you think the home plate umpire is going to give?

The Silent Benefactor has done some weighing in.

ESPN and Baseball Prospectus are both throwing around win/loss pct and number to try and pick the winners of the playoffs. We lean toward Billy Beane, it's a crapshoot. Here's the Silent Benefactor's info using the same Diamond Mind/ESPN's numbers:
To calculate the winning probability of the A's in the playoffs against Boston it's a little tricky. Here are the results:

Probability of the following series outcomes:

Pct of A's Wins -v- Boston Wins
15.579%    3 A's wins - 0 Sox wins
15.102%    3 A's wins - 1 Sox wins
28.428%    3 A's wins - 2 Sox wins
12.890%    2 A's wins - 3 Sox wins
21.471%    1 A's wins - 3 Sox wins
06.530%    0 A's wins - 3 Sox wins


Probability A's Advance:
59.109%


Probability of the A's winning the ALDS with the following sequences:
15.579%    W-W-W
02.325%    L-W-W-W
02.325%    W-L-W-W
10.452%    W-W-L-W
00.725%    L-L-W-W-W
03.261%    L-W-L-W-W
03.261%    L-W-W-L-W
03.261%    W-L-L-W-W
03.261%    W-L-W-L-W
14.659%    W-L-L-W-W


Probability of losing the ALDS with the following sequences:
6.530%    L-L-L
9.661%    W-L-L-L
9.661%    L-W-L-L
2.149%    L-L-W-L
6.647%    W-W-L-L-L
1.479%    W-L-W-L-L
1.479%    W-L-L-W-L
1.479%    L-W-W-L-L
1.479%    L-W-L-W-L
0.329%    L-L-W-W-L

Which leads to...

Baseball Prospectus has a few items on the A's including their 'official' preview.

Their call is Boston in 4 games. We refute that with a simple bit of reasoning, we think the Red Sox (inflated) good hitting is not enough to overcome the A's in a short series. Or a long series. The A's underpeformed all year, the Red Sox went all 2002 Anaheim Angels as far as hitting most of the year. The A's owned David Ortiz in the ALDS last year and Pedro is not as dominant against the A's as he is against, oh, say Tampa Bay or Detroit.

If the A's get five runs a game we are confident that their pitching can sustain them. Tonight, tomorrow and until we say differently. Five runs, that's all they need.

We wish we could break things down further, but there's a train pulling out of Sacramento in a few minutes and our asses have to be on it. The game is a sellout, so if you're headed there, take BART and wear green.

Chant for the evening: Bucky Dent! - Bucky Dent! - Bucky Dent!