Let's start this post by saying that most of the email received in the last two weeks has been responded to in due time. Most of it stating that Elephants in Oakland is "too negative" and "bitches too much" about the A's.

Yes, thank you. And how.

Most of you received a response from EIOS that directly refuted your claims and pointed out that, "if you think this is negative - go read what was written about Terrence Long" or "where have you been for the last two years?"...

How soon we forget.

There is no need to point out that a lot of the email seems to be surfacing as if directed by a single source. Conspiracy theories only need an acknowledgment to fester and by then energy is lost searching for truth (that capital 'T' Truth has been found and it's in a college philosophy course). So, girlfriend, let us not 'go there'.

Shall we not.?

We shant.

Then best not.

Proceed?

We shall.

Yes.

Quite.

Indeed.

So, let's get down to business with some more "bitching" and "moaning" about the A's, specifically that of the push for post season awards.

CYRUS DEWEY AWARD

For the last two years there has been a constant dogmatic rant at this blog: awards only drive up the cost of retaining players. If Jason Giambi had won a second MVP (and he very well should have instead of Ichiro - and Terrence Long absolutely should have won the Rookie of the Year the smae year only if to show how staggeringly bad of a player he became) the A's would not even have been given driving directions to the ballpark figure Giambi's agent would have been asking for in free agent dolla$s. Miguel Tejada, too, by winning the MVP, had an icon on his mantle to push for his free agency courtship. Barry Zito by winning the Cy Young ensured himself of employment late in his career by simply having a GM bemoaning "he's a Cy Young winner".

On Friday, there was a complimentary copy of the Oakland Tribune in the Plaza Suite we occupied (hey, we know people). We don't link to the Oak-Tri very often for the simple fact that their website is two to three days behind at times. Currently, the wrap up for Friday night adorns the breaking A's update. Friday's edition did include a fluff piece on Mark Kotsay's defensive prowess. No kidding. We knew that. But, the article is a purpose piece set to start the campaigning for Kotsay's Gold Glove. It didn't help that Kotsay went and missed two balls on Friday night and another on Saturday by diving for balls in the outfield. Kotsay might be pressing too hard now to justify the hype (which is not 'hype' - he is THAT good). Kotsay, as with all outfielders, not named Eric Byrnes know that you increase your chances of getting to a ball in the air by NOT leaving your feet. This is a truism that is being alerted to all young men and women going through two-a-day football practices. Usually, the pot-bellied coach - who looks like the last thing he caught was a half-dozen Krispy Kreme donuts, will surmise a phrase such as

"look at all 'em sprint'rs in them O'Lipics; how many you seen diving across the finish line?"
As crude as the statement might evolve, it is, for the most part, a relative fact.

In football, there might be instances where a player on defense (or offense) makes the dive or jump a necessity. However, a dive or leap in baseball, particularly in the outfield, is a desperate measure to make up for taking a bad line toward the ball, getting a poor jump or really not having a chance to catch the ball at all. Of course, if there is a polyurethane covered wall in the way - leap, boy, leap!

It is a matter of training over instinct. A player is trained over the years to NOT leave his feet during practice and drills. When push comes to shove, though, it is hard to turn that corner where training becomes second nature and instinct takes a back seat.

Watching the replays of Kotsay's efforts Friday and Saturday night it appears that at least two of the balls could have been caught if Kotsay kept his feet and one could not have been caught no matter what Kotsay did. Which is a very odd sight to see Kotsay dive for a ball. Suddenly, Friday, there he is; not once but twice getting dirty for balls.

Odd. Is this Gold Glove Rush Fever?

Jermaine Dye, too has been able to swing the banter of "gold glover" around as he won the award in 2000 - and thinks he should have won the award in 1999 and All-Star. But, Kaiser 'Bud' Selig has taken a lot of the shine off the banner of All-Star and added some tarnish, to boot.

The push for Jermaine Dye's newer gold glove for 2004 started earlier this year when Dye was approaching the Oakland A's record for consecutive games without an error. The cause celebre was begun by Ray Fosse of A's TV Broadcasts and homerist shrine. This is a rather meaningless 'record'. Errorless chances would mean more than games, particularly if a player was an infrequent outfielder or even a defensive replacement in the outfield. But, there is a subtle reason to push such a 'record'.

Dye is not a bad outfielder, he is just not the outfielder he was in Kansas City or in Atlanta and much of that has to due with the limitations of the injuries he has suffered over the years. Not technique. Save Friday night when Dye dropped a routine flyball in rightfield with one out and a runner on second base in a two run ball game. Dye was getting his body in position to throw to third base if Geoff Blum had tagged up and gone to third and took his eye off the ball for a split second. CLUNK. Hey, we could blame Arthur Rhodes, but that just wouldn't be fair.

Why would the A's broadcast team have Fosse pushing a rather trite accomplishment? It's something to add on a 'resume'. With Dye headed for free agency in the off-season the A's are going to have to hustle to get two A compensation draft picks for Jermaine Dye. The more added to the 'resume' the more the A's could dress up the limited numbers Dye has put up over the last three years.

The draft compensation process is sometimes convoluted as are the arbitration and free agency rules. To the best of our knowledge the compensation for a player lost to another team via free agency is dependant on the cumulative previous three seasons prior to filing for free agency. With two injury plagued seasons and basically two good months for the 2004 season; it does not make the A's compensation outlook very bright for the 2005 draft. At best, based on Dye's statistics the A's could hope for a single B pick (second round compensation pick).

Too harsh?

Well, when it happens, don't come bitching at us.

The point is, adding little things like Player A led the team in 9th inning doubles in the month of August adds to a 'resume'.

Does Kotsay deserve a Gold Glove?

Does Dye?

Who the hell cares? The post season awards are as meaningful to a team winning baseball games in August and September as the bumper plate for a 1978 Dodge hatchback. Though, that bumper plate might be useful against right-handers in short relief down the stretch or off the bench as a pinch-runner...

All of this dialog about MVP candidates, too, needs to be flushed like fresh Astroturf wounds. Let the talking heads on TV and sports writers worry about stuff like that. The only way players or managers can have any affect on the post season awards is by their performance. So why don't we all just shut up, watch the games, write some silly comments and let the players concentrate on winning games instead of individual achievement. You've seen what happens when you go it alone.

BUILDING A BETTER LINEUP

WAIT, THERE ARE NUMBERS?

	G	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	TB	RBI	BB	SO
Eric Byrnes	58	.355	.409	.621	1.030	124	28	44	10	1	7	77	22	12	17
Eric Chavez	71	.326	.426	.558	.984	138	23	45	5	0	9	77	22	22	33
Marco Scutaro	56	.292	.341	.513	.855	113	16	33	10	0	5	58	16	9	12
Jermaine Dye	69	.281	.380	.468	.848	139	23	39	4	2	6	65	24	23	23
Erubiel Durazo	66	.295	.346	.475	.821	122	12	36	7	0	5	58	27	7	38
Bobby Kielty	47	.243	.328	.476	.803	103	17	25	9	0	5	49	14	13	15
Mark Kotsay	66	.297	.366	.432	.798	118	20	35	2	1	4	51	18	13	11
Damian Miller	49	.308	.374	.423	.797	104	13	32	6	0	2	44	11	10	20
Scott Hatteberg	70	.295	.357	.403	.760	129	17	38	5	0	3	52	19	9	15
Bobby Crosby	63	.200	.313	.418	.731	110	21	22	4	1	6	46	10	18	22
Adam Melhuse	18	.158	.333	.316	.649	19	5	3	0	0	1	6	5	5	8
Mark McLemore	18	.105	.292	.105	.397	19	2	2	0	0	0	2	0	5	2
	G	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	TB	RBI	BB	SO
A's	103	.278	.356	.457	.813	1329	205	369	64	5	55	608	197	154	231

Let's be a little realistic. Above are the splits for the Oakland A's hitters in 2004 against left-handers.

Let's write the line-up and batting order according to a few factors for the A's when facing a left-handed starting pitcher:

• On Base Percentage: this is rather a no brainer as you want players who get on base as much as possible and limit the number of outs they create.



• On Base Plus Slugging: the players who post higher OPS number are hitter you want in the meaty part of the batting order, 2-3-4-5.



• Pitches Per Plate Appearance: A crucial statistic that is neglected by a great many baseball fan since it is hard to find the data (it's not on the back of a baseball card) and relate.



• Isolated Power: a not so complicated statistic, but easy to relate to if you just remember that Isolated Power = Slugging Percentage - Batting Average (base hits that were not singles).



• Batting Average: The overrated and misunderstood statistic, but still valuable tool if used correctly.



• Base Running Ability: Cannot be judged accurately by current available statistic formulas and relatively useless as the A's don't rack up steals so secondary average is moot, too (and stolen bases are a poor reflection of true base running ability or speed) - this will be a judgment call.
  
  NOTE: We could devise a formula based on runs scored and On Base Percentage based on league averages and slugging percentage of hitters behind the batter...but then, there is sanity to consider.

RANKINGS VS LEFT-HANDED PITCHING

	OBP	PPA	ISO	BA	BR	TOTAL
Byrnes	2	12	1	1	A	16
Chavez	1	4	3	2	A	10
Crosby	11	3	5	10	A	29
Durazo	7	8	7	6	B	28
Dye	3	2	6	8	B	19
Hatteberg	6	10	11	4	B	31
Kielty	9	5	2	9	B	25
Kotsay	5	11	9	5	B	30
McLemore	12	7	12	12	C	43
Melhuse	10	1	8	11	C	30
Miller	4	9	10	3	C	26
Scutaro	8	6	4	7	A	25

Well, based on those gross totals, you can tell who should not be in the line-up against left-handed starters. Namely Mark McLemore and Adam Melhuse. Which is fine, since they can be in a platoon. Scott Hatteberg's numbers suggest he should be dropped in the batting order if he must be in the line up. Mark Kotsay and Bobby Crosby might be considered candidates for a day off, too when a left-hander comes around...but, wait a minute. Shouldn't these rankings be weighted? How much more important is On Base Percentage to Batting Average and how much more important is working the count (PPA) to Isolated Power?

Hmm.

And are these statistics just for 2004? Should we look at career numbers or just numbers over the last three years? What about Crosby and Skootch, are their rookie numbers really enough to make such decisions on numbers?

Uhm.

And who cares about base running ability - who can go from first to third on a base hit or who can score from second on a base hit? If they get a decent lead and run hard any player should be able to avoid being nailed (that would be the old wisdom - new knowledge suggests players hug the next base and NEVER stray lest the base paths open up swallow the runner hole into a pit of despair never to be seen or heard form again, sort of like Gil Gerard or Shelly Long).

Without an extensive database with statistics to refer to or decent coffee, let's just stick with some relative numbers; On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage and refer only to the other numbers if we hit a problem.

1	Byrnes	CF
2	Kielty	2B
3	Chavez	3B
4	Dye	RF
5	Miller	LF
6	Scutaro	CF
7	Durazo	DH
8	Hatteberg	1B
9	Crosby	SS

From the looks of things, the A's don't necessarily need a right-handed hitting threat to compensate for left-handed pitching. They have that in Eric Byrnes and Jermaine Dye and (eek!) Skootch. What they do need is a 1st Base/DH type that can hit left-handers...and don't say Eric Karros.

Honestly, if Bobby Crosby's numbers improve, which they should, the A's should be okay in the last six months of the season, oops six weeks. There are no vast, lurking crafty left-handers to spoil their run. Oh, except Kenny Rogers in Texas and Ted Lilly in Toronto and C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee in Cleveland and Jamie Moyer in Seattle...and Scott Kazmir in today’s' game. The A's will most likely face all of these pitchers and possibly Rogers and Moyer twice down the stretch. Luckily for the A's Jarrod Washburn of the Angels is still on the Disabled List.

Otherwise the A's have six and possibly seven games against very tough left-handed starters were the offense will have to get the A's pitchers at least 4 runs to have a chance of winning. Anything less than 4 runs a game and the A's facing a left-handed starter the odds become very slim the A's can manage a win.

Looking at the other top teams in the American League; Minnesota has Johan Santana. Hey, there really is a shortage of quality left-handed pitching in the major leagues! The problem for the A's is some of the top left-handed starting pitching stands between them and another American League West title. Good thing the A's have Mark Mulder, Barry Zito and Mark Redman on their staff, otherwise we'd start to worry.

Maybe Jeff Kent wasn't such a bad idea. Kent could play 2nd, Skootch could move to shortstop. Or Kent could play first base.

Of course, if you have $1.8 million the A's would have to spend to lease Kent for the rest of the year contact Steve Schott and Ken Hoffman at (510)638-4900. Call them collect.