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Monday, September 27, 2004
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WILL CARROLL PRESENTED



I am currently interviewing Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus and author of Saving the Pitcher in regards to Mark Mulder.

The interview will be here shortly. The interview is posted below.

It's rather a brief as Will is busy and I don't like to waste time. Will's answering right now and once he gives the 'okay' I'll post.

BACK AND FORTH: with WILL CARROLL


With Mark Mulder's hip/leg/lower middle section injury last season there was a lot of speculation about his health coming into 2004. There were rumors about Mulder being treated with an experimental pharmaceutical, to hip Bo Jackson-like hip replacement, even more serious references to Timm Rosenbach/Neil Lomax-type hip injuries and even the extreme notion the A's were trying to save Mulder's leg in lieu of amputation.

Prior to the All-Star Break it was kind of funny to think how silly some of the rumors were.

It's not that funny right now.

The mark Mulder crisis is in its 79th day (Mulder's last "good" start was on July 10th). It is relatively easy to consider the A's not including Mulder on the post-season roster, or even making the post-season at all.

Will Carroll, either sleep deprived or just out-of it agreed to answer some questions this morning on Mark Mulder.

EIO -
In your Under the Knife column on Baseball Prospectus, you have updated us on Mulder's condition several times.
  1. BP: UTK Date: 2003-03-28
  2. BP: UTK Date: 2003-08-25
  3. BP: UTK Date: 2004-02-13
  4. BP: UTK Date: 2004-06-09
  5. BP: UTK Date: 2004-07-12
  6. BP: UTK Date: 2004-07-16
  7. BP: UTK Date: 2004-08-30
  8. BP: UTK Date: 2004-09-27
But, there always seems to be a general lack of definitive information you are able to get from the Oakland A's Staff.
    Will - getting information out of the A's is like:

  1. Pulling teeth
  2. Pulling your teeth with someone else's feet and a rubber hose
  3. Having your teeth knocked out
  4. Quite easy and always very informative

COFFEE JUNKIE, WILL CARROLL -
It's not the easiest thing in the world, that's for sure. Mostly, the A's are very disciplined and "on message." They'll tell what they think you ought to know and nothing more. It's often information without context. I'm not sure if it's good or bad to have an organization that is so tightly controlled, but there are certainly advantages. I guess it's just a challenge for me.

EIO -
What information have you been able to extract from the Oakland A's on Mark Mulder apart from their generic player injury status statement;
"he's fine..."?

BLOGIST, WILL CARROLL -
I don't have any information beyond that from the A's. I've spoken with some people and it's easy to tell they're concerned. Actually, Mulder's public statements have been far more forthcoming.

EIO -
Combining that information with what you can assess with video, statistical analysis, charting pitches, rumors, innuendo, gut feeling and watching Mulder live - what can you deduce about his physical status?


AUTHOR, WILL CARROLL -
Mulder appears to be off mechanically. He has such a smooth delivery that it has been easy to detect the differences. Using the miracle of MLB.tv, I can definitely see that his arm has dropped. He's always had the ability to change the angle of his delivery; now he's consistently down with his upper arm parallel to his shoulder line. His body seems angled, his hips come through late, and his stride seems changed. It's the type of thing Rick Peterson would have corrected.

EIO -
Let me take you down a road for a second before I get to the next question. Peter Gammons of ESPN has said recently that Mulder is "hurt" (paraphrasing) and Tim Kurkjian of ESPN has countered "there is something wrong" (again paraphrasing) with Mulder on different episodes of Baseball Tonight. While we, the common fan, don't know if Mulder is "hurt", we can certainly observe that "there is something wrong" with Mark Mulder. Let's get some working definitions; what does 'injured' mean and what is an 'injury'?


ALL AROUND SWELL GUY, WILL CARROLL -
Injured means that a player is suffering from a specific injury or condition. An injury is some discreet condition or series of conditions that have both a causation and a prognosis. "Dead arm" is not an injury; it's a symptom. "Torn labrum" - now that's an injury. I'm not sure that Mulder is injured as much as he's off mechanically.

EIO -
There has been some speculation that Mulder's poor performance since July, for the lack of a better term, is a "mental" issue. If it is "mental", can't we assume that it is an injury, or at the very least, the lingering effects of a previous injury?


Example:
If player A if physically unable to perform because of a confidence problem or psychosomatic episode or even hesitancy in a specific act (swinging, throwing, pitching) due to priory injury - doesn't that boil down to an 'injury'? The brain is still part of the body, isn't it?

INJURY GURU, WILL CARROLL -
Certainly. We saw that with Johan Santana early in the season. He was scared to fully extend his surgically repaired elbow. The surgery he had was as minor as a pitcher can have, but once he got over that fear, well, we all know the results. Sometimes it's as simple as "it hurts when I do this" and a pitcher stops doing that. Sometimes it's pain, sometimes it's results.

EIO -
I have been rather unpleasantly surprised by Curt Young, the Oakland A's pitching coach this season. Barry Zito struggled for far too long, at this point in the season Mark Redman would be better left pitching outside of the Network Associates Coliseum and Mulder's struggles are getting to be considered good content for Leonard Nimoy to go "In Search of". Throw in the bullpen and the litany of problems therein for good measure. I can go to the statistics and be justified. The A's are almost a half a run worse in team ERA in 2004 (4.14) than they were in 2003 (3.63) and 2002 (3.68). But, I have a nagging feeling that some of the distaste I have for Curt Young's laissez-faire methods is simply a reaction from having been witness to Rick Peterson over the last few years. Many have labeled Peterson a micro-manager. At this point, though, weighing Young's results against Peterson's - can't we just call Peterson's efforts justified?


PUNDIT, WILL CARROLL -
One certainly has to look at the results. Pitching coaches often have a certain type of player that they seem to work well with. Dave Duncan can remake a talented older pitcher like Woody Williams or Chris Carpenter, but you don't want him around the young guys like Matt Morris. Young seems to have done very well with Rich Harden, so maybe that's his niche.

EIO -
I'm putting you on the spot, but I don't care: would the 'pitcher's plague' that has struck the A's in the last nine months have occurred under Rick Peterson's watch?


DEMAGOGUE-IN-TRAINING, WILL CARROLL -
Rick isn't God. He's just a very good pitching coach with a lot of research. We all have certain types of people we like to be around. We have bosses we like and bosses we don't and it's often just style. The A's still have a real advantage because they keep their pitchers healthy. Until they "come back to the pack" and rack up frequent surgery points like the rest of baseball, I'm not going to condemn Young. I'd just watch the results - which I'll do in Under The Knife.


Will was thanked a ton and if he thinks he's getting special stuff for sitting down for the interview, he's got another thing coming.

If you can stand a blog that has some to do with baseball and other stuff - you should head to Will Carroll Presents. There you can buy his book, ask him to autograph it (have him to sign it to 'Happy Ebay bidder'), find more baseball links, read some interesting posts and hang out in the coment vault with some interesting people and some very impotent people. No, there's no 'r' missing. And don't miss BP Radio.
It's more fun than something that is fun but requires reading and stuff.


Comments:

Is Mulder injured or just hurting? Or is there a difference?

 

Wow. Actual information on Mulder that makes sense. EIO Rocks.

 

Great work, EIO! Nice job getting Will to weigh in.

Here's my $0.02: I think Mulder isn't injured, but sick. He looks to me like he's lost a not-inconsiderable amount of weight since about June. His face looks noticeably thinner, and his uni pants are baggier than usual.

 

It's great that you have a contact with Will Carroll. He's one person you can get an honest and thoughtful opinion on.

Great job on the questions, too. You didn't mess around with a lot of fluff and ass kissing. The questions were surrounded with background and were thought out in advance of the answers.

It's the first interview about the A's I've read in awhile that actuall had some useful information in it. Not blabber we have all known for years.

As for the A's holding their injury information to themselves...if it were only that easy to just deny and hope the questions go away.

Are you going to be at the games this week?

 

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KEVIN GOLDSTEIN
2005 Wrap-up
2004 BA's Top 10 Giants v A's
2004 BA's Top 10 Prospects


MATT WATSON
WATSON - Part 1
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WATSON - Part 3


WILL CARROLL
THE JUICE

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