IF PEOPLE ARE TREATED WITH BENEVOLENCE, FAITHFULNESS, AND JUSTICE, THEN THEY WILL BE OF ONE MIND, AND WILL BE GLAD TO SERVE.

- The Art of War -

Will Carroll writes a column for Baseball Prospectus called Under the Knife, he hosts Baseball Prospectus Radio and has his own website; Will Carroll Presents. Will is highly touted as the injury guru in baseball, apart from being an overlooked author (Saving the Pitcher), and just a good guy. Will took time out of his schedule to answer some questions via email.

ELEPHANTS in OAKLAND:
Will, thanks for taking the time to answer a few questions. Are you on your MAC today or your T-Mobile Sidekick?

WILL CARROLL:
I'm Mac-powered today. The Sidekick is awesome though - I used it during my vacation to do everything but write. With the Sidekick, I can get through most daily situations without lugging the laptop.

ELEPHANTS in OAKLAND:
It is well known that the A's give out medical information as often as C. Montgomery Burns gives out charity.Why are the A's so nondescript about information? Do they really fear lessening a player's possible trade scenarios or innate value? Or is it just a matter of status quo and keeping things close to the vest?

WILL CARROLL:
They feel they have an advantage by having information no one else has. I'm not sure if this is right, but I also feel it's a side effect of the control Beane has on the organization. It shows the discipline Sandy Alderson first instilled and Beane now has down to a science. Everyone knows there's a plan, who formulates the plan, and what their part is, from Ken Macha down to the peanut vendors in Arizona. The A's also have great confidence in their medical staff; the secrecy gives them a bit of freedom to be experimental, such as with Mark Mulder's hip where he used an off-label drug.

ELEPHANTS in OAKLAND:
Let's get to the players:

Mark Ellis - you recently wrote that, "If Mark Ellis comes back healthy - and all indications are that he will...". That doesn't necessarily mean that Ellis will be ready in Spring Training, does it?

WILL CARROLL:
No, there's some open question about the early season. These types of injuries have a tendency to recur - the best comp we have is J.J. Hardy, a prospect in the Brewers organization. He's lost parts of two years to a similar injury. Whether he's weakened or has lost ROM will be the major issue and obviously, the A's need a Plan B.

ELEPHANTS in OAKLAND:
Nick Swisher - a lot has been made over the fact that Nick Swisher had thumb surgery after the season. The diagnosis, according to some reports was a fractured thumb and a torn tendon. There was a lot of blowhard talk about what a warrior Swisher is and a throwback player to the time when you just rubbed some dirt on it and got back out there...this all seems like a load of crap. Obviously, the injury did not bother him that much since it occurred in college and he's been playing with it since then. How common is it for players to have an undisclosed injury and keep playing?

WILL CARROLL:
Pretty common. It's that "rub some dirt on it" mentality combined with the fact that players regularly play with pain. You're right - if it did bother him, he'd get it fixed and finally, he did. I'd guess he had an avulsion fracture, where the tendon tore away from the bone, taking a piece of the bone with it. Relatively simple surgery with relatively simple rehab, plus Swisher's proven he can play with some pain in his thumb. It's really a non-issue.

ELEPHANTS in OAKLAND:
Mark Mulder - Speaking of undisclosed injuries...what the hell is wrong with Mark Mulder? Some have suggested he was emotionally drained, physically drained others say his hip never healed. I point to the fact for the second year in a row he was tied for the league lead in complete games.

WILL CARROLL:
I'd guess it was two things - first, the hip injury likely changed his mechanics slightly. That may have led to some additional stress on his arm. Maybe his stride shortened or he pushed off less, I can't really tell and it could be very subtle. Second, the injury surely changed his ability to maintain an off-season regimen. The drop in the second half certainly had a fatigue component. If all Mulder dealt with at the end of the season was some variation on "dead arm", he dodged a bullet. We won't really know until he pitches and even then, we'll have to watch his velocity closely.

ELEPHANTS in OAKLAND:
Jermaine Dye - is there some sort of brain injury that has taken MLB by storm? Why do people keep writing about Jermaine Dye coming back to the A's, or worse the A's signing Juan Gonzalez as a free agent? Dye's numbers over the past three years are pathetic.

3 Year	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS
Totals	.243	.318	.425	.743	1241	189	302	62	5	51	186	126	17	278	7	2

Why would anyone want to pay $8 Million+ a year for that and have the lingering risk of injury? Why would Juan Gonzalez' name even be mentioned?

WILL CARROLL:
Everyone wants to guess about who Beane can find and rebuild. Everyone wants to remember just how good Gonzalez was without remembering it was a number of years ago. What makes us think Gonzalez is anything like Eric Davis? The Kendall trade should end any talk on Dye, whatever caused it in the first place.

ELEPHANTS in OAKLAND:
Jason Kendall - the A's acquired a catcher. Kendall has long been mentioned as an atypical catcher one that peaked too early in his career, lighter than most, runs well, et al. He suffered a serious injury a few years ago and he gets hit by pitches at a very high clip. What are the odds of Kendall being injured in the next three seasons and can he buck the trend of catchers over age 30 having their offensive output decline by 10%? Can we expect PECOTA to show what Billy Beane really got?

WILL CARROLL:
Kendall = Biggio in my mind. Similar styles, both are "dirty uniform" guys. I'd guess Kendall could have been moved from behind the plate, but why? There's such a dearth of good catchers that having someone credible back there gives such a positional advantage. PECOTA has some interesting comps and some interesting numbers for his attrition.


Ignore the ankle injury. He's had no recurrence since that horrible injury, putting up big playing time in every season. You know, he was on the operating table just over an hour after the injury? That's amazing. Anyway, it's knees and speed that show up when a catcher is getting worn down - Kendall's given no indication of that. Heck, maybe the time lost to his ankle injury gives him a bit of an advantage over a catcher the same age.

ELEPHANTS in OAKLAND:
All three left-handed starters for the A's struggled last year. Curt Young, the A's pitching coach was a left-handed starter during his major league career. I'm not making a giant leap to suggest that maybe there was some difficulty in Young relating to Mulder, Barry Zito and Mark Redman (not to mention Arthur Rhodes), am I? Has there been any correlation to former pitchers as pitching coaches struggling by trying to relate to pitchers. After all, Rich Harden, for the most part, had a solid season with only minor breakdowns here and there that can be linked to his lack of experience. Tim Hudson was fine, despite injury. But they were right-handed pitchers. Also, why was it that Jairo Garcia could light up the minor leagues, yet when Curt Young gets a hold of him, he falls apart?

WILL CARROLL:
Your guess is as good as mine. Some pitching coaches connect with certain types of players and I don't think we have enough data to really know what Curt Young is yet. Baseball players, especially pitchers, tend to have some odd in them - look at Zito! - and they're certainly not going to respond to one style. A coach has to vary his approach and keep it individualized. We'll have to watch and see what trends emerge and trust that Beane's got a close eye on it.



Will was thanked and he noted that his book is for sale in Turkey.