"Congratulations man! It's totally inspiring, makes you want to jump over the top and yell, 'Yah-boo sucks to you, Fritzie'!"



The first thing that came to mind two weeks ago when the Keiichi Yabu rumors were flying was Blackadder. Specifically Blackadder Goes Forth and General Sir Anthony Cecil Hogmanay Melchett. The above quote was uttered by Stephen Fry's character in an episode. By the way, Blackadder Goes Forth was voted as having the best finale episode of a TV series recently, hard to argue, really.

Well, it came to pass that the Oakland A's signed Keiichi Yabu. A week prior, Asian newspapers had been running stories of the deal and had the details of the situation down from the time Yabu would board his plane to the United States to the time of day Yabu would be taking his physical in Oakland. Of course, these were FOREIGN reports. For a full seven days stateside (that's the United States, kids) the Bay Area papers and national media had zip, nada, zero, nil. It wasn't until the day before the signing that John Shea of the San Francisco had a few paragraphs on the situation - as reported by the Asian Press. There were no comments or quotes attributed to the Oakland Athletics or its administration.

Why?

For one, there were several other teams interested. Why start a bidding war on a free agent that hasn't even boarded the plane to the U.S.? The L.A. Dodgers and the not-L.A. Dodgers Who Are Actually the Anaheim Angels of Southern California Located in the Western Hemisphere on Planet Earth (I am pretty sure that's what the Anaheim Angels have changed their name to) were both mentioned as being interested in Yabu in a December article from MLB.com.

Secondly, sportswriters are morons.

And of course, there was always the possibility that Billy Beane was working the angles (not the Angels) on a trade. While Beane could not sign and deal a free agent, Yabu could have been the Player to Be Named Later. When the Dodgers designated Chin-Feng Chen last week, there were light bulbs over one's head. Sign Yabu, trade Scott Hatteberg or Eric Byrnes for a Dodger or two, have Yabu pitch into mid-June, flip one of the acquisitions along with another player or two. Send Yabu to L.A. as the PTBNL and then sit back and ignore the critics.

Eh.

Trying to read Billy Beane's mind is like trying to anticipate tomorrow's stock quotes...for the next few years.

The Yabu question becomes; how can you compare Japanese statistics to MLB statistics and have it be relative?

The answer; Do a lot of research and read several books on Japanese baseball. Create a matrix and MS Access database to correlate at least ten years of MLB, Minor League and Japanese League data...or just email Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectus.

Year	Team	Games	CG	Starts	SO	Wins	Losses	BF	AB	Inn	Hits	HRs	BB	Ks	Runs	ER	ERA
1994	HT	26	8	17	1	9	9	743	-	181	174	12	42	110	67	64	3.18
1995	HT	27	7	20	2	7	13	813	-	196	185	19	50	118	73	65	2.98
1996	HT	30	6	24	1	11	14	834	-	195	204	14	51	145	97	87	4.01
1997	HT	29	4	22	1	10	12	768	-	183	172	23	62	111	79	73	3.59
1998	HT	24	3	21	2	11	10	692	-	164	159	11	51	90	74	64	3.51
1999	HT	28	4	23	2	6	16	737	-	173	175	16	57	95	80	76	3.95
2000	HT	25	1	23	1	6	10	638	-	151	162	19	30	95	76	70	4.17
2001	HT	17	0	8	0	0	4	250	-	55	55	2	33	26	32	25	4.09
2002	HT	20	5	15	2	10	6	532	-	131	118	14	30	97	48	46	3.14
2003	HT	23	0	15	0	8	3	405	367	97	97	13	27	67	50	43	3.96
2004	HT	19	1	18	1	6	9	480	428	116	108	8	36	75	44	39	3.02
Totals:		268	39	206	13	84	106	6892	795	1644	1609	151	469	1029	720	652	3.57

Now, knowing that BP and other sites were going to try to explain the subtle differences in the different styles of play and the formulas to predict what foreign player A would do in MLB - it's just as easy to take what is already available and run with it; namely strike-outs, walks and innings pitched. You can also throw in Games Started for Yabu - because he has a bit of an odd (for MLB generalities) usage pattern.

The knee-jerk reaction to any Asian pitcher, let alone a 36 Year-Old Japanese pitcher, heading toward MLB is that the guy is a genetic freak. Japanese pitchers have a history, much like MLB pitchers, of being used and worn out like a Datsun 510. No doubt, some examples of health issues with Asian pitchers in MLB are on the horizon from Will Carroll.

Usage patterns are another matter. In Yabu's case, while we do not have pitch count data available, we do have some raw data. Look at the complete games, games started and the innings pitched. It looks like if Yabu's arm was not surgically reattached in time for his next start, the Hanshin Tigers simply kept working on it in the clubhouse and then threw Yabu into relief situations until the welding points cooled.

There are some numbers that stick out as positive, and others that furrow the brow. Yabu's strike out to walk ratio and base runners per 9 innings are very good, regardless of league. The losses, look rather incredulous. It looks like Yabu was the designated loser for most of his tenure or the manager had a real knack for his team not scoring runs when Yabu was on the bump.

The home runs allowed is a little nerve wracking, as the traditional notion is that Japanese baseball is not as homerun happy as the HGH purveyors would like.

So let's forget about the statistics (GASP!) for a moment and concentrate on some other numbers.

What is known is that Yabu adds about 500,000 in attendance in Oakland this season if he's a starter and about 350,000 if he's a reliever. Asian fans flock to the Coliseum when Ichiro is in town (It's debatable if they were there to see Shigetoshi Hasegawa - but they could have been). Is a $1 Million deal worth offset by the bump in attendance? Do the math - let's say only those 'extra' fans attributed to the Yabu signing show up and pay $9 to sit with me in the bleachers. That's $4.5 Million in gate revenue alone. Add in parking, food and drink, Yabu jerseys Yabu (Dabu Do) T Shirts and the number almost doubles. At worst the A's match their cost in Yabu at the Major League level. But, should Yabu wind up in Sacramento, attendance there would be boosted as well (Sacramento attendance was way down last year despite winning the PCL Championship in 2003 and repeating in 2004).

Status	Starter	Reliever	Sacramento
Attendance	500,000	350,000	150,000
Ticket @ $9	$4,500,000	$3,150,000	$1,350,000
Extra @ $6	$3,000,000	$2,100,000	$900,000
Estimate	$7,500,000	$5,250,000	$2,250,000

So the risks are clear; if Yabu doesn't make the 25 Man Roster, the A's eat a little bit and if Yabu is injured or damaged goods and can't even suit up to pitch - they eat another Eric Karros-like deal. At least in Yabu's case the A's will know not to let him take the mound if he isn't capable - the A's let Eric Karros wander out onto the field despite overwhelming evidence he was done as a major league player in 2004.

There are several other good tidings that come with the Yabu signing. We get to hear more Gilbert & Sullivan at the Coliseum if Yabu pitches. I am going to start begging, BEGGING, - the guy in charge of the music and scoreboards to play the Entrance of the Mikado or even the Mikado Overture with Miya Sama when Yabu is warming up or can add a mix with Behold the Lord High Executioner and Let the Punishment Fit the Crime. Plus, they can have some young ladies on the Obey-O-Tron and play Three Little Maids From School. All the A's need to do now is add someone from Great Britain and we can here For He is an Englishman from H.M.S Pinafore or We Sail the Ocean Blue.

So, in the dollars and Gilbert & Sullivan sense, I have no problem with the Yabu signing.

On a performance level - we really have to wait and see. Sure, the stats are there, but the sample size is so small right now and the injury history and usage patterns with pitchers has yet to be cemented.

You hope that it all works. If Billy Beane has found another market to tap, the baseball world will never be the same.