ELEPHANTS IN OAKLAND
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Thursday, December 15, 2005
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BITCH BETTER HAVE MY MONEY



DOLLARS AND SENSE

Three people emailed and asked if I could break down what I meant when wrote: "the A's outfield as a more expensive commodity than their pitching staff for the first time since Billy Beane was named GM."

Now, I've gone through and listed the A's outfield versus the starting pitchers for 2006. All possible eight of them. Mind you, I didn't even adjust for what some of the players will earn with their new contracts for 2006 or in arbitration - which could be 10% - 30% more.

Now, I may have been wrong when I suggested that this was the first time in a long time that the A's outfield earned more than the staring pitchers. I'll head back to 2004 and check. I think I was in denial about the Jermaine Dye deal.


2006 SalarySTARING PITCHING2006 SalaryOUTFIELDERS
$1,000,000 Rich Harden *$7,000,000 Mark Kotsay *
$8,500,000 Barry Zito *$4,000,000 Jay Payton
$500,000 Danny Haren *$316,500 Nick Swisher
$5,000,000 Esteban Loaiza *$2,500,000 Milton Bradley ***
$316,500 Joe Blanton *$875,000 Bobby Kielty ***
$350,000 Kirk Saarloos ** 
$2,000,000 Joe Kennedy ** 
$600,000 Juan Cruz ** 
TOTAL TOTAL
$18,266,500  $14,691,500


* Does not include signing bonus or performance incentives or other clauses increasing the value of contract.
** Rights controlled by Oakland Athletics.
*** Rights controlled by Oakland, arbitration eligible.


STRIKE THAT, REVERSE IT


2004 SalarySTARING PITCHING2004 SalaryOUTFIELDERS
$336,500 Rich Harden *$5,500,000 Mark Kotsay *
$3,000,000 Barry Zito *$11,666,667 Jermaine Dye *
$5,000,000 Tim Hudson *$316,500 Nick Swisher *
$4,450,000 Mark Mulder *$2,200,000 Eric Byrnes *
$2,000,000 Mark Redman *$875,000 Bobby Kielty *
$350,000 Kirk Saarloos *
TOTALTOTAL
$15,136,500 $20,558,167

* Does not include signing bonus or performance incentives or other clauses increasing the value of contract.


Wow, was I ever in denial about Jermaine Dye's contract

And take away the multiple starters from 2006 and the outfield and starting pitching is fairly even, until the arbitration hearings start. Byrnes was traded, but that still doesn't make it close in 2004. The signing bonuses might have made it a bit closer. But, still. I was wrong. I believe I was in denial about Dye's deal and what he made with the White Sox this season; $4,000,000.

Now, let's do a little math. In 2004, the A's paid $35,694,667 for the starting pitchers and outfielders (let's pretend Byrnes wasn't traded). In 2006, without the arbitration flux the A's will pay a bit more than $32,958,000 for all eight of their starting pitchers and outfielders.

Wow, was I overworked and sleep deprived Tuesday night.

The A's might be on the same pay scale in 2006 as they were in 2004 for the combo of starters and outfielders...the Loaiza deal doesn't look so crazy, now (but it is).

Why the swing? Joe Blanton is cheaper than Tim Hudson. Danny Haren is cheaper than Mark Mulder. Jermaine Dye is gone. Also, I was mentally factoring in signing bonuses and contract incentives. The pitchers had several performance bonuses factored in, and the A's drafted Hudson, Zito and Mulder. Mulder receiving one of the larger signing bonuses at the time he was drafted and signed.

But, there's something we might be overlooking, when it comes to the A's payroll for 2006. Eric Chavez made $5,325,000 in 2004 and will earn close to $10,000,000 in 2006. The weight of one questionable contract left rightfield and moved to 3rd base.

But, I'm not going to venture out into how Dye's contract compares with Chavez' when it comes to declining performance.

Not yet, anyway.

Let's look at 2004 as compared to 2005 in salaries at the start of each season:

PLAYER2004 SALARYPLAYER2005 SALARY
Jermaine Dye$11,666,667 Jason Kendall$10,571,429
Mark Kotsay$5,500,000 Eric Chavez$8,500,000
Eric Chavez$5,325,000 Mark Kotsay$6,500,000
Tim Hudson$5,000,000 Barry Zito$5,600,000
Mark Mulder$4,450,000 Octavio Dotel$4,750,000
Jim Mecir$3,300,000 Erubiel Durazo$4,700,000
Damian Miller$3,000,000 Jay Payton$3,500,000
Barry Zito$3,000,000 Scott Hatteberg$2,450,000
Chris Hammond$2,400,000 Eric Byrnes$2,200,000
Scott Hatteberg$2,300,000 Ricardo Rincon$1,900,000
Erubiel Durazo$2,100,000 Bobby Kielty$875,000
Mark Redman$2,000,000 Keiichi Yabu$750,000
Arthur Rhodes$1,800,000 Juan Cruz$600,000
Ricardo Rincon$1,750,000 Keith Ginter$583,333
Chad Bradford$965,000 Alberto Castillo$450,000
Mark McLemore$600,000 Mark Ellis$400,000
Eric Karros$550,000 Adam Melhuse$385,000
Billy McMillon$450,000 Bobby Crosby$350,000
Frank Menechino$400,000 Rich Harden$336,500
Adam Melhuse$357,500 Kiko Calero$330,000
Bobby Kielty$347,500 Justin Duchscherer$329,500
Eric Byrnes$328,000 Danny Haren$323,500
Chad Harville$307,000 Marco Scutaro$323,500
Justin Duchscherer$302,500 Charles Thomas$319,000
Marco Scutaro$301,500 Joe Blanton$316,500
Esteban German$301,000 Nick Swisher$316,500
Bobby Crosby$300,500 Huston Street$316,000
TOTALTOTAL
$59,102,167 $57,975,762




Again, wow.

Let's revisit this and maybe some of you would like to project the Opening Day 2006 payroll. There might be a free copy of the 2006 Baseball Prospectus book and/or a copy of the Baseball America Top Prospects book. I promise, I won't try to autograph them.



DARN, THAT'S THE END


Comments:

Another great post, Zach. Even when it looks like Beane has gone off his rocker, you do the homework for us and it looks a little better.

I am guessing that the payroll is under $55 Million.

Hey, is this going to end up like the Price is Right?

 

It's really hard to tell without those bonuses in the picture. But, you have to figure that they are relatively comparable.

I think the A's added at least $2 Million to the payroll during the season with the trades.

And with all the one-year contracts, I think the A's are going to be right at $60 Million.

 

I'd gone into most of this on my own blog, but here's what were on the hook for in 2006. First, those under contract or who don't have the service time to get over $400K: (I think they could get as low as $316K, but I'll call it $330K to add in a little extra to account for some who will get more, and to make the math simpler.)

Kendall: $11M
Chavez: $9.5M
Zito: $8.5M
Kotsay: $7.03M
Loaiza: $6M
Payton: $4M
Ginter: $1.03M (I assume by accepting his outrighting to Sacto, the A's still have to pay this. Not totally sure though)
Harden: $1M
Crosby: $750K
Haren: $700K
Blanton: $330K
Saarloos: $330K
Street: $330K
Duchscherer: $330K
Johnson: $330K
Calero: $330K
Swisher: $330K
Scutaro: $330K
Perez: $330K (I think? He might get arbitration this first year. Not sure)
Melhuse (or other backup catcher): $330K
Flores: $330K (It's generally assumed that he'll be on the team as lefty relief.
There's also $250K paid for the buyout of Yabu's contract.

The following players are arb-eligible:

Kielty
Bradley
Kennedy
Witasick
Ellis
Juan Cruz

So without the arb-eligible players, we've got roughly $53,390,000. I'm not good at gauging arbitration values, but it looks like there's roughly $10M worth of player in there, give or take a mil or two. So the 2006 Opening Day roster will be more expensive than it's been the last two years, by about the 10% we've been told the A's payroll will increase.

 

This post has been removed by a blog administrator.

 

Zach's post did have the effect of cooling my ire towards Beane somewhat. One goofy contract on the books per year is acceptable (Dye in 2004, Kendall in 2005, and either Kendall or Loaiza, depending on performance, in 2006). BB makes it up in rookie contracts, locking them in low for a couple of years.

It's the ever-present shadow of "the righthanded powerhitter to be signed later" that still gives me the jibblies. Here's hoping Beane dots the "i's" and crosses the "t's" before/if he decides to sign up Frank Thomas or Mike Piazza (or maybe Adam Dunn?). (nervous whimper on the exhale)

$57 million without the RH Power.
I shudder to think WITH the RH Power. $65 mil? $66? $67?

 

There is a ton of new money in MLB- XM Radio, increased revenue share, new TV deal, the Nationals were actually profitable and no longer needed support from the other clubs.... An A's payroll of $65-$70mm is likely to be slightly profitable or at worst break even. The national media deals bring in over $33mm per club alone.


Chip

 

F. Thomas is a liability at 275lbs. There is no way he carries himself, let alone the A's into the post-season. He plays much too heavy for a big man with a history of foot problems. The RHDH among the names most often mentioned that can balance the offense and remain healthy, if not spectacular, is Piazza and that's not a bad line-up at all. Convince him to give up catching and those downward trending numbers will likely rise to fit the bill nicely. One less headache to worry about. IMHO.

 

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