Friday, January 27, 2006
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ALL THINGS RECONSIDERED
ALL THINGS RECONSIDERED
There is this old man who spent so much of his life sleeping that he is able to keep awake for the rest of his years -
He resides on a beach in a town where I am going to live and I often ask him -
"Are you looking for the mother lode?"
"Huh? No. No my child, this is not my desire" and then he said "I'm digging for fire."The Pixies
I usually respond to email on an individual basis, but honestly I don't have time right now. Not only has my trip to Arizona for Spring Training been scuttled by my boss, my vacation as a whole has been wiped out. Under the guise of "other duties as assigned" my agreed time off vanished. Take note; don't work hard, don't go the extra mile. Sure, it's great job security when a project relies solely on you at times. But it also means you are required at times to work even harder, more and go further than the extra mile.
Elephants in Oakland has been put on a back burner so deep I sometimes wonder if I shouldn't just switch to Podcasts and record as I have a few minutes in between meetings, driving to class or even in the bathroom (don't laugh, I read the entire Fletch series and re-read the last two Baseball Prospectus annuals and Baseball America Top Prospects in three months after the 2005 season).
Let's skip to relative issues.
I try to reach a broad spectrum of people, particularly A's fans. I don't try to increase hits and I don't advertise this blog, that's not what this is about. This is not a commercial site and I have no plans on making it one. I don't do interviews unless you are going to learn something from them. In posts I ask questions. I propose concepts. I ask readers to think for themselves. I sometimes 'dumb' things down so that people new to baseball in general can catch on to stats and other terms (want to know how many people have emailed me on what 'OBP' stands for?). I originally started this blog as a way to explain baseball to my roommate. Also to remember what actually happened with a game or with the A's in general. Why? Because sportswriters, particularly those who work for newspapers don't 'get it'. TV talking heads and 'analysts' get it even less. Try listening to Glen Kuiper without cringing.
This is not a message board. And I define a message board as very little content followed by the ability of users to comment and add a continual series of responses. Essentially a gross off shoot of the old Bulletin Board System (BBS) in the early days of the public internet. I'm thrilled that many are carrying on some of the thoughts in the comments area, but I am not about to start correcting people. I'll let others do that. The difficulty is, MLB.com already has a message board as does ESPN.com and a few other commercial baseball sites. Message boards become the lowest common denominator of information dissemination. In fact, I'd argue that much of it is not information or even chatter. Just pointless and a waste of time.
I really don't want to read about which Oakland A's player has the best ass or endure a 'fan' who claims that the A's are the best team in baseball, every A's player is the best in baseball and has no significant basis for these statements other than the fact they want to be able to put their funny user name on "them internets with that 'puter thing".
I have experimented with a varied format, with an administrator with another site, so that people can type in real time and respond to each other. I can retool that and revive it here - call it a forum rather than a bulletin board and have regular hours where readers can submit with an immediate response. Either with me, or others on the fringes of the inner workings of baseball. Closer to instant messaging than a true chat session where messages are sent and senders hope that there is a response on the subject they submitted. Usually there is not.
Which brings me to the next bit. I am not sure I want to attend the A's Fan Fest tomorrow. I did attend the previous few years and the only real fun for me is getting a chance to ask Billy Beane a question in the Question and Answer sessions. Even then I expected a typical Beane response, but sportswriters and others with access to Billy Beane have a tendency to ask the same basic questions. Beane is only too happy to respond with patent answers. In some cases print sportswriters are simply taking a sound bite, a small sample, from an answer to a question. Interviews with Beane are merely an elongated form of the process without the editing. Glen Kuiper's sit-downs with Beane have an elegant view of how bad the sports world has changed. Where is Howard Cossell when we need him?
Rob Neyer's recent article on ESPN.com is a wonderful example of a writer with access being able to point out the asinine and the ridiculous. Neyer is not a sportswriter. He's a writer who happens to write about baseball. Oh, and as you know, I have told ESPN.com to shove their pay-to-read 'Insider' service. I asked Rob Neyer about his column being moved from the free area of ESPN.com two years ago, I believe the actually phrasing of the question was, "what the hell?" So, here's Rob Neyer's ESPN.com article:
Coliseum unkind to power hitters
By Rob Neyer
"Wednesday, for the first time in my moderately lengthy and supremely improbable career, I participated in a press conference. I did this supremely improbable thing because (a) I was invited, (b) it's not every day that Frank Thomas changes teams, and (c) I enjoy listening to A's general manager Billy Beane try to amuse himself without actually saying anything interesting.
Actually, it was a teleconference, with Beane presiding over all the writers and broadcasters who cared to dial in for his comments about the signing of Thomas. I planned to take good notes, but I gave up almost immediately, after being reminded that Beane rarely says anything worth repeating (on the record, at least).
I did get one for posterity (though it wasn't one of my own lame questions).
Question: [Actually, all I remember is that it was something about the desirability of Thomas' experience. And there might have been something about intangibles mentioned.]
Answer: "You know what? One intangible, possibly, is that this is a guy whose skill level, whose presence in the lineup is undeniable. Frank Thomas is a presence. Not only is he our type of offensive player, he's everybody's type of offensive player." Exactly. Thomas has played in only 108 games over the last two seasons. But when he's played, he's been good enough to bat .255/.400/.571 (and for any neophytes who might be reading, those last two numbers are the important ones, and they're awfully good).
And as you've no doubt heard, the A's got Thomas cheap: $500,000 guaranteed, with various health- and performance-based incentives that could push his compensation all the way to $3.1 million. Still a relative pittance these days.
But here's the truly beautiful thing about this deal: If Thomas isn't healthy enough to earn those bonuses, the A's won't miss him. Seriously. The A's already had a solid lineup. Last season, they finished sixth in the American League in scoring, even though they had Dan Johnson for only two-thirds of the season, and Bobby Crosby for only half the season. Mark Ellis enjoyed what's likely to be his career season, but nobody else did anything out of character (except Jason Kendall, who was so terrible that he almost has to be not only better in 2006, but a lot better). This winter they picked up Milton Bradley. On top of this giant cupcake, Thomas isn't even a cherry; he's just some of those shiny sprinkles that look a lot better than they taste.
Maybe that's not fair. It does seem unlikely, though, that Thomas actually will play more than 50 or 60 games. And more worrisome, perhaps, is this: From 2000 through 2005, Thomas hit 108 home runs in his cozy home ballpark -- and 39 everywhere else. Those numbers are so extreme -- you don't see numbers like that from anybody, not even Colorado's sluggers -- that it's almost impossible to believe that they're meaningful in a literal sort of way. But new Comiskey is incredibly friendly to power hitters, and Oakland's Coliseum is not.
I've known about Thomas' struggles away from the South Side, but I forgot Wednesday. So I didn't ask Billy Beane about Thomas' home/road splits (and neither did anybody else). I did ask about another split, though. Over the course of his career, Thomas has hit significantly better while playing first base than DHing. Here are his career stats at both spots, courtesy of my friends at STATS:
AB OBP SLG DH 3442 .402 .512 1B 3485 .453 .625
As a first baseman, Thomas is either the greatest right-handed batter since Rogers Hornsby, or the greatest ever. As a designated hitter, he's been fantastic, but hardly some sort of historical figure who inspires poetry and interpretive dance. Do those numbers tell us anything about Thomas' abilities? Or are we simply looking at randomness or the natural manifestation of a player who played first base when he was healthy and DH'd when he wasn't? I don't know.
Here are some meaningful numbers, though:
AB OBP SLG Career vs. LHP 1654 .456 .657 Career vs. RHP 5302 .418 .540
For a lot of reasons, I'm pulling for Thomas. I hope the apparent trends have, in this case, absolutely no predictive qualities. But even if he's reasonably healthy, Thomas is unlikely to help the Athletics in a full-time role. The A's have a deep bench. No, we can't expect the manager to play Thomas only at first base against right-handers in homer-prone ballparks. But with lefty-killers Thomas and Bobby Kielty on the roster, along with right-handed hitting Jay Payton, there are roughly 12 guys who deserve some sort of defined, regular (or semi-regular) role.
Manager Ken Macha has a real challenge on his hands. Billy Beane has provided Macha with a wealth of talent. Everybody does something well. This team is probably good enough, given a reasonable degree of luck, to win 95 games and take the division title. But for this team to achieve its true potential, Macha will have to juggle every nonpitcher on his roster without causing too much dissension in the ranks. Most managers wouldn't be up to the task. But let's keep an eye on this one."
So, you got the 'it's a good deal' some of you have been begging for. And you also got it kicked back in your face by Rob Neyer. I still take the position that there's not a whole lot to make of this situation until Thomas can actually step into the batter's box. If he does, that changes the complexion of the A's roster and there are lots of options to be considered. But, even these considerations have been floating out there since the end of last season. Many have hitched their anchor to Nick Swisher being the second coming of Mickey Mantle ("cuz they wrote a book called Moneyballer about him") and that Beane would "never trade Swisher".
Or trade:Mark Redman, Tim Hudson, Nelson Cruz, Mark Mulder, Ted Lilly, Terrence Long, Ramon Hernandez, Michael Barrett, Bret Price, Bill Murphy, Mike Neu, Eduardo Sierra, J.T. Stotts, Jason Grabowski, Chad Harville, Frank Menechino, Mike Wood, Mark Teahen, Cory Lidle, Billy Koch, Neal Cotts, Daylon Holt Jason Arnold, John-Ford ThunderCougarFalconbird Griffin, Aaron Harang, Joe Valentine, Jeff Bruksch, Mark Bellhorn, Eric Hinske, Justin Miller, Tom Wilson, Jason Hart, Gerald Laird, Ryan Ludwick, and Mario Ramos, Luis Vizcaino, Jeremy Giambi, Carlos Pena, Franklyn German, Jeremy Bonderman, Jon Adkins, Marshall McDougall, Randy Velarde, Matt Stairs, Miguel Olivo, Ben Grieve, Angel Berroa, A.J. Hinch, Miguel Cairo, Ryan Christenson, Robin Jennings, Todd Belitz, Mario Encarnacion, Jose Ortiz, Michael Wenner, Jimmy Haynes, Brett Laxton, Jesus Colome, Danny Ardoin, Jorge Velandia, Jay Witasick, Kenny Rogers, Jeff Davanon, Elvin Nina, and Nathan Haynes, Jeff D'Amico, Brad Rigby, and Blake Stein, Billy Taylor, Carl Dale, Scott Brosius, David Newhan, Don Wengert, Steve Karsay, Eric Ludwick, Shane Mack, Greg Hansell, Kurt Abbott, Ara Petrosian, Jason Wood, Adam Robinson, Scott Rivette, John Wasdin,
Creighton Gubanich, Geronimo Berroa, Mark McGwire...
posted by ZACHARY D MANPRIN at 4:46 PM
The Forum is open and available to all - registration is required to post, but not to read.
Excellent post, Zach. Agreed that ESPN can take their pay-for-read bullshit and stuff it.
The thing that I take from Neyer's article that really worries me is the importance of Macha in the A's 2006 season. I agree with Neyer on two levels; one, that the A's are a solid team that has a good shot at winning the divison; and two, that Macha needs to properly juggle all of these guys to get them enough playing time. It shouldn't be that hard (if every corner infield/outfield starter gets one day a week off, that works Payton, the bench player most likely to piss and moan, around 100 starts this season) but Macha has shown himself to be a thouroughly inept no-talent assclown with no idea how to use his bullpen or bench, so we'll just have to wait and see.
I also don't think that a trade is too likely to happen, but not because Swisher is Beane's love-child or anything. I just think that all of the injury risks (Kotsay, Bradley, Thomas, Payton himself are obvious risks, and you never know when Swisher will run into a wall or crash his tractor or something) make the depth that the A's have absolutely necessary.
# posted by
: 27 January, 2006 17:19
I do have one bone to pick with Neyer's article, and that is he did not address the premise of the article, or at least, what he titled it.
I was expecting to read about what Thomas will do in the Coliseum, and why Neyer says that the Coliseum is bad for Power Hitters. The only argument he makes on that point is to say that Thomas is very good in Chicago, and not as good elsewhere. But he does not address how Thomas might do in Oakland, or how other power hitters have fared in Oakland.
Thomas's stats in Oakland the last 3 years:
.321/.424/.750/1.174 (28AB)
Small sample, yes, but he still seems to have success here.
But really, it begs the question: How DO power hitters fare in Oakland? Or better yet, how do different type of hitters fare in Oakland, ala Jonnny Damon's inability to hit in Oakland (.200/.317/.314/.631 in 35AB)
(Why is Thomas listed as an Outfielder on ESPN?)
# posted by
ah, I forgot. I have a question for you. You complained about the inept questions that sportswriters ask their interviewies, the soundbite oriented clips, and so on, but what would YOU ask them?
(No, I'm not being patronizing, I'm serious, what would you ask them?!)
# posted by
Whiny old Zach at his best.
You're going to look a real idiot when Swisher isn't traded.
# posted by
And you'll look like an idiot when he is...or if he isn't. SO what's your point?
Man, do you people have such a hard on for Nick Swisher you can't see past the fact he sucks?
He was supposed to be Rookie of the Year. He was supposed to be a better hitter than he showed in Sacramento.
Now he's the A's 5th OF and in a span of a month is no longer the A's 1st baseman, but in a platoon. And the A's haven't played a single game.
Nor has Frank Thomas
# posted by
Mr. Smith
You've swung too far over the other way. Swisher has a rough rookie season, but that can happen. The guy hit LHP well in his 04 debut, a trait that he (supposedly) carried over from the minors. Last year he couldn't touch them. Is that just a blip or the start of a distrubing trend? No one will be sure until next season. But calling him the 5th OFer is off base, he's certainly going to be playing ahead of Bobby Kielty and I think he starts over Payton.
# posted by
"So, you got the 'it's a good deal' some of you have been begging for. And you also got it kicked back in your face by Rob Neyer."
1) I don't think any of us disagree with Neyer's view. That would assume we didn't know that Thomas is injured or that Cellular Field is friendly to right-handed power hitters (though it should be noted that McAfee , sans 2004 at 999, has been a HITTERS park, though slightly). What we all want to point out is that we only have to pay $500,000 to see if it is a fluke, or if his pissed-ofness at the White Sox leads to a rebound year, not bad at all.
2) We haven't been begging for the "it's a good deal", we have been DEMANDING IT, because as even Rob Neyer says, it is. Being wrong and admitting it is a truly courageous thing to do, being wrong and sticking to your guns is a confident thing to do. Being wrong, then trying to berate those who are right and kindly point it out is pretty disappointing for someone of such obvious intelligence.
P.S. As far as swisher goes, geez, cut the kid a little slack. Robin Yount sucked his first year, Cal Ripken had an OBP of .317 his first full year, Paul Moliter a .301 OBP. Goddamn, its his ROOKIE YEAR, with the expectation that he was going to win ROY. Honestly, I expect a .265/.360/.430 line this year with 25 HR's. A great year? No, but not bad for a 2nd year player.
Zach just continually talks shit about Swisher, he has done since day 1. And he is WRONG.
I hope to see his crow all over this blog next season.
'5th OF'er' that's any semblance of credibility gone right there. Zach is a whiner pure and simple dressed up in a lot of fancy talk.
Swisher is a favourite target of his bile uzi for reasons best known to himself.
Basically he just delights in knocking every little thing the Oakland Athletics try and do, as if he knows best.
# posted by
Good thing we're gonna win the Worlds Series this year, huh?
# posted by
goodmeat2000 : 28 January, 2006 14:18
For those who haven't picked up a copy of Ron Shandler's 2006 Baseball Forecaster, here is his comment and projection for poor old Swish (bear in mind this is written with fantasy players in mind):
"Excellent buy-low opportunity as low full-season BA masks 2nd half growth. Spikes in bb%, LD (line drive)%, PX, but H% killed BA. Power will likely arrive before BA, but both are on the way.
UP:30 HR"
Admittedly, I'm a big admirer of Shandler, who predicted Zito's post Cy Young regression. He also has extremely nice things to say about Crosby, Harden, Haren, and Johnson in this year's book.
# posted by
Oops, left out Shandler's projection for Swisher:
.250-25-81-0, .821 OPS
# posted by
If Zach never said it was a good deal or a bad deal...how exactly is he wrong, again?
Zach 'talks shit' about Swisher, and he is wrong? Provide some information on that, if you can. Zach doesn't care for Swisher and he doesn't think his numbers bely what the media and the A's get the media to say about Swisher.
Shandler is a fantasy guy and I think most would look at what Bill James and PECOTA have to say (Rob Neyer does).
And as far as you AN people getting YOUR bile uzi's out, Swisher is the A's 5th OF'er this year, every report from the A's has made that clear. You can read any newspaper report and you'll see the same. In fact, several have come out and said Swisher may not even play in the OF this season.
It gets really old having to read through these comments as if Zach berated their dead dog after he ran over it.
The guy does a great job of presenting an issue and some of you don't understand how to analyze anything so you just naysay.
Go get a life.
I hope the A's win the World Series, too. But here's a challenge to the pollyanna's out there - put your money where your mouth is. Plunk down your cash for a strip of World Series tickets right now.
No excuses, "I don't live in California". Plunk down the cash.
See how many are willing to back up their cliams now.
# posted by
PECOTA for Swisher: 50th percentile
.252/.347/.455
538PA/66r/21 hr/75rbi/64BB/105K
PECOTA for Johnson: 50th Percentile
.272/.353/.462
577PA/70r/21hr/83rbi/62bb/77k
PECOTA for Thomas:
.237/.342/.497
353PA/22hr/61rbi
These were just released this week.
I actually wrote Neyer the night after the Beane press conference that he was on, asking why he didn't inquire about Thomas' home/road spilts. He wrote back, said he forgot about them and thanked me. Two days later, there's that article.
Chip
# posted by
Sadly, World Series tickets haven't gone on sale yet. However, as an A's season ticket holder, I have plunked down cash for post season tickets for each of the last however many seasons. And then re-invested the money in next season's tix. And I don't even live in California!
Oh, caught me in a lie. I even live in Oakland, which is more than can be said for many A's fans!
So would those who diss the Swish (and I have at times been amongst them)
argue that he is a better fantasy player than 'real' player? And, Ron Washington hyperbole aside, how does he rate defensively at first in comparison to his rather cloddish outfield play? Or is he a better defensive outfielder than he appears? Serious questions, BTW--I'm not as knowledgable about defensive metrics as I should be.
# posted by
I always find it amusing when an anonymous poster throws down a challenge like "put your money where your mouth is and buy WS tickets today!"
Anyways, this poster makes a claim which is completely false, which is why I'm leaving this comment.
"And as far as you AN people getting YOUR bile uzi's out, Swisher is the A's 5th OF'er this year, every report from the A's has made that clear. You can read any newspaper report and you'll see the same. In fact, several have come out and said Swisher may not even play in the OF this season."
I don't know what newspapers this person is reading, but the following sources do not support this position.
The Chronicle says "When Thomas is in the lineup, Johnson will be back at first much of the time, and Swisher returns to the outfield....That would leave outfielder Jay Payton -- who was so upset with his lack of playing time in Boston last year that he triggered a trade -- as the possible odd man out".
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/01/26/SPGB2GTBMS1.DTL
MLB.com says "the A's sign Thomas, he's the primary DH. That moves Johnson back to first, Nick Swisher back to right field and Bradley over to left."
http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060122&content_id=1299257&vkey=news_oak&fext=.jsp&c_id=oak
The Spots Xchange (which feeds CBSSportsline.com and FoxSports.com) says "All that's certain is that Kotsay will be the everyday center fielder. As for the corner spots, Macha said he wants to spend spring training determining which side is the better fit for Bradley and Swisher." The implication here being that Payton again seems the odd man out.
http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/teams/report/OAK/9193015
ESPN.com says "With the addition of Thomas, Dan Johnson will likely be Oakland's starting first baseman and Nick Swisher and Jay Payton could share time in left field. Bradley will start in right alongside center fielder Mark Kotsay." Even here it's implied that Swisher will be no worse than the LH part of a left field platoon.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2305916
Here are four reports, national sources all, and none of them support this mystery poster's claim that the A's have broadcast loud and clear that Swisher is going to be the 5th OFer next year. I know that Urban and Slusser aren't held in the highest regard around here, but it seems a little incredulous to think they'd miss out on such a story.
Perhaps next time we could get a name and some sources to go with this other version.
# posted by
I disagree, folks and here's why.
First, though, can we got off the animostiy? If you like AN, fine, go there. If you like EiO, fine. If you like both, fine. Let's just agree that we are fans of baseball and most of us are A's fans and be done with it, okay?
This is worse than a Raiders fan gathering...a holding cell at the Oakland PD. Or sticking Ray Ratto in a room with pom-pom man.
I don't want to write too much and have someone one scan over each letter to try and 'prove' an argument worng. Like, Grover, the SF Chronicle is not a national source, it's a local source. Like that.
I have to restate what Zach has said now that all of us have decided to pencil Thomas into the starting lineup; Thomas has yet to prove he can physically play baseball.
Until we get an accurate assessment on his physical ability, this is very trival (but FUN!).
Here's why I agree with the claim that Swisher is the 5th OF'er. I know Grover went back and got the soundbites from this week - but go back 10 days before Thomas' singing was even apparent.
Go back to the arbitration cases when they wrote that Swisher was the 1st baseman and that Johnson was the DH, Bradely in right, Payton in Left, Kotsay in Center and Kielty getting spot starts and Kotsay getting rest for his back with Payton or Bradley moving to CF. Okay...that's four guys. Swisher is number 5.
And grover, I don't mean to pick on you, but Joe Blanton, Huston Street and Dan Johnson were rookies. They all made the All Rookie team thing, or whatever than was. Johnson beat out Howard, the NL ROY. To suggest that Swisher, the golden boy, as it were, should be given slack because he had a tough rookie year is going too far. Swisher was called up in 2004, too, Street and Johnson were grren (and gold) rookies.
Right now things make less sense than they did last fall.
On another note, I can't see why anyone would make a statement that somebody "knows more than the A's front office".
As far as I can tell, Zach has only been negative the last two seasons. How many playoff games were the A's in? I'm not saying Zach knows more than the A's front office, but he seems to know when there's something not right.
# posted by
J.S. Guy
I was pointing out that the Chronicle was a easily found publication, one that could found on-line as it were, and not some small time rag when I dubbed it a "national source". Perhaps that wasn't the most accurate descripition, but I wanted to make clear that the source had more credibility than the Davis Enterprise.
Let's look back at the line-up prior to the Thomas signing. The A's had two players on the 25 man roster who could play 1st base, DJ and Swisher. DJ can only play DH and 1B, the A's had him try to play some OF in AAA and it didn't take. Ron Washington has been quoted as saying that Swisher had Gold Glove potential at 1B, therefore it was a pretty easy decision for people to say that DJ would be the DH. That leaves Payton in LF, Kotsay in CF (Macha has said as much) and Bradley in RF.
Signing Thomas changed all that. I think everyone will agree that if he can play (BIG IF) he should be limited to DH duties. That means DJ has to play 1B or ride the pine, and his 2005 performance earns him a spot in the Opening Day line-up... for now. (Let's not get into an arguement about what some unknown might do in ST to deserve a spot on the 25 man roster.)
So lets assume that everyone, Thomas included, is ready on Opening Day. That pushes Swisher back into the OF mix. Kotsay is in CF. Bradley will be playing, whether in LF or RF remains to be seen. That means Payton vs. Swisher for the last OF start because Kielty is only going to play against LHP.
Payton isn't a very good hitter for a corner OFer. He's got a career .330 OBP/.443 Slug, and those numbers get a boost from playing for Colorado for a season plus. At 34 he's as good as he's going to get... (insert your own Barry Bonds reference here.)
Swisher nearly matched Payton's career numbers last year, and at 25 he still (theoretically) has room to improve. Defensively, Payton is better. And if we were talking about which one would play CF the choice would be obvious... Payton. But we are talking LF (or RF) and that is an offense 1st position. Swisher appears to have more offensive upside than Payton.
Last year the A's handed RF to Swisher, this year he needs to earn a starting spot and I think he does. All indications post-Thomas signing point to the A's giving him the first shot.
Now, you make a comparison between the rookie play of Swisher to that of Street, Blanton and Johnson. All I can say is in 2000 the A's featured Tim Hudson winning 20 games in his first full season, Barry Zito earning a mid-season call-up and posting a 7-4 2.72 line, and Mark Mulder going 9-10 5.44.
The point is not all rookies perform the same. Just because Swisher did poorly in comparison to his fellow Rookie class does not mean that he cannot achieve their level of success.
# posted by
And I think people aren't realizing that even us optimistic ones don't expect 162 games out of Thomas, or even 120. 100 games? Hopefully. 80 games? Thats probably about right if Macha uses him right (another BIG IF). That is what most of our problem with Zach's post is. And Zach even admits it ("All things Reconsidered"). It focuses too much on the negative of the deal, a negative that is more than adequately covered by the minimal cost of the contract. BP covered it perfectly when they said that they would be more enthused about the deal if he wasn't so injury prone, but in reality, he is either contributing or hurt, and he is just an extra addition to a team that "on paper" was the favorite for the AL West, and in January, on paper is all you got.
And Swisher is not the 5th OF. I mean, I don't see what the discussion is there.
And this blog is all about Zach believing he knows there are better ways for the A's to perform, and apparently with his "connections" on the "inner fringes of baseball", he has more information at his disposal to criticize. I read to see different viewpoints, maybe things I didnt think of, and to voice my opinion when I feel it is off base.
Personally, I would love to see Zach get involved in the discussions more (he still hasn't said who he believes was the last A to win a spot out of spring training, he only posted a vague transaction list).
As far as not giving swisher any slack cause he was called up in 2004. Those numbers I posted for Ripken and Moliter were for their first FULL years, not including cup of coffee call ups. So yes, I DO think he deserves some slack. Until he is 30 yrs old? Hell no, but bailing after his first full year? A lot of players would have slipped through the cracks by simply looking at first year numbers. Such as Crosby, who besides for a lot of HR's, had an absolutely horrendus year at the plate his first full year, but no said "trade him". Even after that, he was considered a "championship caliber player" by BP. So like I said, lets cut swisher a little slack
and I don't want to abuse my BP Premium account, but this years PECOTA of Swisher has him at a .347 OBP, 21HR, with his highest comparable being Lance Berkman...someone I think is interesting enough to see if he can outproduce Jay Payton, and someone to definately have more than a years worth of patience
I don't get the "fifth outfielder" thing. It seems to me that people are agreeing that Kotsay and Bradley are OFs #1 and 2, with the discussion being whether Swisher or Payton would be the third starter.
Aren't we pretty much in agreement that Kielty is the 5th OF?
I'm leaning toward JSG...and I think this is where some of you go astray. Not that you are WRONG, just go off on the A's path. You throw optimism in there along with stats.
Fine.
But don't begrudge Zach because he does not.
Let's all take a step back and consider this from an outsider's view before you just throw in optimism.
And it has been written again and again, Zach didn't call the signing good or bad, he's indifferent to it. A lot of people are who are not A's fans.
By the way, the 'All Things Recinsidered' is a take off of the NPR program and takes the approach of reporting rather than framing the news. It's not an admission of any kind.
Does it really help them to have a 25 Man roster spot saved for a guy who is truely day-to-day? I thought the A's did that with Ginter and Charles Thomas last year and that really hurt them.
It's really hard to take an opinion (let's call them that rather arguments because if we got into symbolic logic, everything we write in the comments would be thrashed) when some, if not most, is centered on optimsism.
Sort of like Payton, he's not going to get any better, but Swisher is? Sure age is thrown in there. But Swisher isn't going to become a better hitter or defender. His stats will improve, maybe. Does that mean he improved or is he simply more comfortable and a mariginal improvement shows (or even luck)?
Take a look at Swisher's AAA numbers. He got on base because of walks and he can't hit for average. He's shown that in the big leagues. Crosby's numbers are skewed because of injuries.
But until Thomas plays in spring trainig or the season starts it's hard for a person who has not crossed over to A's fandom to take this opinion of Swisher beating out four veteran players with 'track records' seriously.
There was some talk in the east coast papers about Swisher heading to Baltimore and to Chicago AND to the Mets.
Ben Greive got traded, he was ROY. So did Mcgwire.
It might happen sooner or later. And the A's have a few prospects coming up. Javi Herrera, Dan Putnam, Richie Robnett. And if Swisher's already being thought of as a 1st baseman it really limits his value.
# posted by
Jason
The potential is there for Swisher to develope further, because he's just starting to hit his physical prime and he has gained valuable experience. That is not a guarantee that Swisher will improve. To say that Swisher can't get better as a hitter or a defender is crap, it happens all the time in sports.
And the talk of moving Swisher to 1B does not diminish his value, in fact it increases his value because it adds to his versatility. Forget the Thomas signing. Payton cannot play 1B. Kotsay cannot play 1B. Bradley cannot play 1B. Swisher can. Johnson can. 5 line-up spots to fill, 5 players to fill them. Payton is a better defensive OFer than Swisher. If Payton and Swisher are both going to be in the line-up, one as the DH and one in the OF, than Swisher should be the DH. If you think that Swisher is a better defender than Johnson you can have them switch roles.
And trusting east coast papers to report on a west coast is a lost cause. Lot's of speculation (hey, hear the one about the Mets going after Barry Zito?) little production.
# posted by
Exactly
Its not optimism in the stats, its natural player progression, one of the basis for the creation of PECOTA by Baseball Prospectus.
And yeah, I would think that the day to day slugger trying to catch lightining in a bottle is exactly the kind of guy you would want the 25th man to be. Tell me, if you consider Thomas our 25th man, for even an 80 game season, please name a 25th man on another team that will produce more that we would be better off with.
Sorry I didnt get the joke, there seems to be a lot of TV jokes, and except for Family Guy and ESPN, I dont watch much TV (other than A's games of course). My bad.
And like I said before, posting something to shed light on possibilites that were not evident is great writing. Posting something to rain on the parade is no better that the Susan Slusser "crap" that Zach so abhores. Asking why Eric Chavez is pampered and not forced to have surgery is great writing. Beating us over the head the Frank Thomas is injured and can't swing a bat yet (which in January, is not that damn important, and all reports Ive read don't even question he will be ready for opening day, maybe not spring training, but opening day) is something that I expect from Slusser and Urbyn. We KNOW he is injured, we KNOW he may not play a single game, but its a $500,000 risk, well worth it if he even gets 150 AB (especially if they are postseason AB's). That is what I think is bothering us so much. This post isn't enlightining, it doesnt tell us anything we dont know (except for the possibility for trading Swisher, and no one here has yet to dispute this is possible, most of us only have said he is not the #5 OF). It merely serves to try to kill ANY excitement that I would like to feel for acquiring Thomas, even if I know its probably for only 80 games.
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