VALIDATION STATION

"NOW NIMBLE FINGERS THAT DANCE ON NUMBERS
WILL EAT YOUR CHILDREN AND STEAL YOUR THUNDER,
WHILE HEAVY TORSOS THAT HEAVE AND HURL
WHO CRUNCH LIKE NUTS IN THE MOUTHS OF SQUIRRELS."

- CAKE, Nugget


Nate Silver comes to the rescue with a review of the, as he states, "Oakland Elephants".

Silver essentially puts in graphical terms what has been said for some time; the A's are not watertight, airtight or even loosely packed in the overhead bin. Even as A's fans profess that all of the A's are MVP candidates, only Frank Thomas, Barry Zito and Jason Kendall have even been selected to an All Star team. Only Zito has an outside chance at one in the next few seasons. Not that All Star Games mean a damn thing.

Back to Nate Silver's article. I don't want to cull too much and rip off Silver or BP so I'll try to keep matters thin and get through some of the main points.

Silver systematically goes through the A's, surgically displacing myth with pathos.

Silver levels the Bobby Crosby expectations.

"He's a good player, but he’s not the second cheap superstar that a team like the A’s may require."

He lowers the boom on the late Eric Byrnes parade - now Nick Swisher party.

"I am hedging just a little bit with Swisher because the bar is set pretty high for a slow corner outfielder...I think he settles in as a .255/.375/.550 guy and a perennial stathead favorite."

The effects of the A's (by my estimation, purposely) driving down attendance.

"Being the second team in a two-team market is precarious if you aren’t playing well enough to pull in the requisite walk-up sales."

Silver also touches on the questionable pitching decisions, the empty cupboard in the minor leagues and Daric Barton's lack of progress. Several players have outperformed Barton at the plate in Sacramento this season; Doug Clark, Matt Watson, Jeremy Brown, Charles Thomas. The A's were once rich with pitching talent and are now embarrassingly thin. Why oh, why is Kirk Saarloos starting and Chad Gaudin held in reserve.

Another topic Silver lists with a graph, but not text - Ken Macha is average/fringe.

Silver touches on some names; Piazza, Willis, Hudson. With Hudson, I think the A's should really consider packaging Dan Meyer and Charles Thomas with someone like Cliff Pennington off to Atlanta for Hudson and Brian McCann or Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Call it a bundled rebate.

Silver doesn't want to paint a bleak picture, but it's hard not to with all the variables the A's have stacked against themselves.

To be blunt, here's Silver's analysis:

"...And there is just too much chance that a poor season risks testing the patience of Beane and the fanbase...All of these factors call for a more aggressive approach in Oakland."

Maybe I am stretching and overreaching. But what I read is, the A's have been making some pretty bad decisions the last few years and Billy Beane's been lazy.

Again, maybe I am stretching it. But I don’t think so. I think there is more than enough to shatter the legend of Billy Beane and start picking up stones to throw. As an owner and General Manager, he bares an overwhelmingly huge responsibility for delivering.

The days where Beane could cover up his free agent tracks with trades are over. Now it’s all about the work. Quite frankly, it hasn’t been getting done. Drafts have been bare and picks have been pruned. The A’s are in for a world of hurt before the decade is out unless something happens in the next 9 months. In March 2007, the A’s will be in their 10th season under Billy Beane’s control.

The tarnish is showing and the apathy is growing thick. As much as most like, admire and respect Beane and the A’s limited accomplishments, there are those growing wary, those who loathe, and those with venomous bile raging in their mouths. Two expansion franchises, the Angels, the Red Sox, the White Sox and the Yankees have won World Series in the last eight seasons.

The A’s are still on the outside, wondering why they haven’t been given a championship, yet.