COULD EUCLID BEAT UP COPERNICUS?

The larger question is, "how the hell do the A's keep winning?" Their Pythagorean Expectation smacks the unconventional, conventional wisdom. There have been a lot of ridiculous explanations for the difference in the A's scoring and preventing runs totals. One of the more curious is that the A's allow runs later in games that make it seem closer than it is. From a knee jerk reactionary seat, yah, I can see why that appears to be the case. But all teams play 9 innings and the numbers are the numbers, no matter when the come in. Another is that the A's have been running into bad pitching. I do not doubt this for a second. The A's are still leaving runners on base and grounding into double plays as if they expect to win a prize for the next GIDP. The A's are not a good hitting team and while some A's hitters are beginning to perform closer to an expected level - when your starter gives up 8 runs and gets the win...


Baseball Prospectus' Clay Davenport has taken Bill James' Pythagorean Expectation to a different perspective and lays out win expectations by: Runs Scored and Runs Allowed, Equivalent Runs and Equivalent Runs Allowed, and Equivalent Runs and Equivalent Runs Allowed - based on strength of schedule.


All you need to know:

Games a team should win can be calculated a number of different ways, this method allows sifting of things like "luck", "bad luck", "curses" and "intangibles".

Let's steal a look at the American League West.

	WINS	LOSSES	RS	RA	W1	W1
ANGELS	69	62	642	620	67.7	63.3
RANGERS	67	65	680	646	69.2	62.8
ATHLETICS	74	56	597	568	68.0	62.0
MARINERS	61	69	592	618	62.3	67.7

This is the same Pythagoras Theorem that I use on the MACHA TERROR WATCH. Runs scored and Runs Allowed as Bill James had surmised many years ago. A's should not be in first place. But they are.

	WINS	LOSSES	EQR	EQRA	W2	L2
ANGELS	69	62	637	582	71	59.9
RANGERS	67	65	666	631	69.3	62.7
ATHLETICS	74	56	593	605	63.7	66.3
MARINERS	61	69	582	632	59.9	70.1

The win/loss records based on Equivalent Runs. Here is the definition as provided by Baseball Prospectus :

"Equivalent Average. A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense. The EqA adjusted for all-time also has a correction for league difficulty. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average. League average EqA is always equal to .260."

The A's are should actually be seven games behind in the AL West. But they aren't.

	WINS	LOSSES	AEQR	AEQRA	W3	L3
ANGELS	69	62	650	586	72.0	59.0
RANGERS	67	65	682	627	71.3	60.7
ATHLETICS	74	56	613	606	65.8	64.2
MARINERS	61	69	598	598	62.4	67.6

The Adjusted Standings according to AEQR. Here is the definition as provided by Baseball Prospectus:

"EQR and EQRA, adjusted for strength of schedule: the quality of their opponent's pitching and hitting. If AEQR is higher than EQR, the team has faced better than average pitching; if AEQRA is higher than EQRA, the team has faced worse than average hitting."

The A's have faced near average pitching. The Rangers and Angels have faced tougher pitching. Namely the A's. The A's should be in third place. But they aren't.


And then the Deltas. What is the difference in the analysis and the actuality and what does it mean? A negative number mean the team has won fewer games than expected, a positive number more games than expected.

	WINS	LOSSES	D1	D2	D3
ANGELS	69	62	1	-2.4	-3.4
RANGERS	67	65	-2.2	-2.3	-4.3
ATHLETICS	74	56	5.6	10	7.9
MARINERS	61	69	-1	1.4	-1.1

The A's are the only team in baseball with 3 positive deltas and a positive double digit delta. The A's should have 5, 10, or even 8 wins less than what they have now. But they don't.


If you're an A's fan, what do you care? The A's are in first place and bound for the playoffs!


If you're an A's fan, you should care. The A's, in all consideration, are about 7 games above where they should be, the Angels 3 games below, the Rangers about 3 games below and the Mariners have stabbed them selves in the back by losing so many games (15 straight) to Oakland. Hey. 7 Games. If the A's and Mariners had split their season series...


I have mentioned this dozens if not hundreds of times; the last two seasons the A's were in first place in the AL West on the 1st of September. In 2004 the A's finished 1 game back and were eliminated in the final weekend by the Angels. They were three games up on the Angels on the 1st of September. Last season the A's stumble-bummed their way to October by a whopping 7 games out. They had an identical record as the Angels on the 1st of September.


If you are patting yourself on the back for the A's being in 1st place, bully for you. If you are still worried that the A's outlying issues are enough to bite them in the ass - I SALUTE YOU. You are in the know.