Wednesday, August 30, 2006
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RUNS AROUND
I received a few email questions in the last three days. I am very disappointed that someone has not picked up the ball and ran with it. Sorry for the football reference. LOB. GIDP. What do they mean? RUNS. That's what they relate to. That's where you should have taken your analysis. Namely, how do GIDP and LOB correlate to runs scored?
I'll lay it out for you, again, and try to spell it out. I've even included the rankings in the hopes that you can stare and compare the numbers without being too involved.
This is a really easy exercise in offensive efficiency: How many base runners does a team need to score a run?
"Well, if he hits a homerun..."
No. Not in that context. How many base runners are needed per run?
Add up hits, walks and hit by pitch. I have not included errors for two reasons - the data is hard to interpret and nearly impossible to get. It's not that hard to find out how many errors a team's opposition has committed. The hard part is determining if a player reached base, or advanced a base. So, let's call it negligible as all teams play each other and they are not performing in a vacuum. Okay?
Good.
BR - Base Runners
BPR - Base Runners per Run
Here is a very easy view of how efficient teams are at scoring runs. The White Sox lead MLB in runs and just so happen to be the most efficient at scoring runs. The Padres need the most base runners per run and they happen to be 27th in MLB in runs scored.
Let's look at the A's.
There are just two American League teams that rank in the first 10 of Base Runners per Run (the most number of Base Runners per Run). The A's rank 5th and the Royals rank 7th. The rest of those teams are National League teams.
So what?
As the A's go deeper into the season, they are going to face some good pitching, namely Minnesota, Chicago, the Angels (again), the Mariners and the Angels (again, again) to close out the season. With the A's struggle to score runs, BECAUSE OF THE NUMBER OF BASERUNNERS THEY NEED TO SCORE A RUN, the A's only solace is that their pitching could be just enough to better their opponents.
And that is the margin that we park our hopes upon.
Jeepers. That reads like a follow up post.
posted by ZACHARY D MANPRIN at 2:13 PM
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