MORE OF A HOLD-SAVE THAN A WIN-WIN

Goes to show
How winds blow
The weather's fine
And I feel so so-so, so





After reading the quotes from yesterday and all of the surrounding articles regarding the Ken Macha dismissal it's time to start seeing what fits.

There are a lot of categories on the field where I thought Ken Macha was an inferior manager and not fit for the position ;

• Bullpen Management


• Base running


• Defensive Positioning


• Bullpen Management


• Line-up


• Winning

There are many other areas I will touch on, but let's look at the areas above as tangibles, for now.


BULLPEN MANAGEMENT


The A's bullpen as individual performers did a pretty good job. They were in the higher echelon in the American League. To a point. It's difficult to blast statistics at you without getting into the deep, deep levels like some of the blokes at Baseball Prospectus. So, we'll just take the obvious stuff to get started.

	TEAM	G	W	L	ERA	SvO	Sv	BS	Sv%	IP	ER	R	BB	SO
1	MINN	161	26	10	2.91	50	40	10	80	498	161	176	137	450
2	DET	159	20	20	3.51	62	46	16	74	471	184	207	186	352
3	OAK	157	25	15	3.60	74	54	20	73	465	186	200	189	365
4	TEX	159	19	24	3.74	65	42	23	65	534	222	248	198	422
5	LAA	157	25	17	3.78	63	50	13	79	464	195	218	175	414
6	TOR	156	26	13	3.98	62	42	20	68	529	234	257	212	451
7	SEA	156	27	19	4.04	67	47	20	70	488	219	230	227	425
	TEAM	G	W	L	ERA	SvO	Sv	BS	Sv%	IP	ER	R	BB	SO
8	NYY	157	23	23	4.18	60	43	17	72	510	237	259	215	413
9	BOS	159	25	20	4.51	69	46	23	67	503	252	275	186	388
10	CWS	157	18	20	4.53	63	46	17	73	407	205	216	179	337
11	CLE	149	16	27	4.66	47	24	23	51	422	219	237	166	348
12	TBR	159	25	31	4.94	54	33	21	61	513	282	314	231	336
13	BAL	157	19	25	5.25	56	35	21	63	512	299	319	228	335
14	KCR	159	24	34	5.36	66	35	31	53	577	344	369	272	441

A few things right off the bat (I hate using that phrase); the A's number of blown saves and their save opportunities. Try not to get hung up on ERA as a comparable after the Twins ERA - which is incredible. What you should look at is the difference between runs and earned runs. There's an ongoing debate on how many runs, over a season's average, equal a win. 3. 4. 4 and a half. Let's skip that and just look at the difference between the ERA and what should be the Actual Run Average. Because Official Scorers are so fickle - can we really judge that as a determining factor (SEE: Eric Chavez)? Maybe. If we take into consideration that all Official Scorers are little Napoleonic dictators - a MLB rule in the press box is that you can not argue with an Official Scorer. You can be banned, in some cases, for life from covering baseball for arguing.


We're talking about the bullpen, but how much does defense, good defense, save a bad decision by a manager?


Remember, the A's were second in the American League inducing 149 GIDP - the Royals led the league with 161. Take into consideration that the Royals OBP was almost 30 points higher (more runners on base - more GIDP opportunities). Back to the point, the A's defense prowess is strength. A good thing it is, too.

TEAM	BAA	OBP	SLG	OPS	WHIP	K/BB	K/9	P/PA	RS	H	2B	3B	HR	TB
MIN	.248	.301	.359	.660	1.21	3.28	8.13	3.77	4.57	467	84	5	39	678
DET	.242	.319	.375	.694	1.31	1.89	6.72	3.73	4.14	431	69	14	47	669
OAK	.255	.331	.377	.708	1.37	1.93	7.06	3.86	3.75	450	79	13	37	666
TEX	.249	.322	.364	.686	1.31	2.13	7.11	3.85	4.01	501	80	8	45	732
LAA	.245	.316	.389	.704	1.31	2.37	8.02	3.91	3.59	431	93	6	49	683
TOR	.246	.322	.384	.706	1.34	2.13	7.67	3.87	4.36	496	98	4	57	773
SEA	.245	.331	.384	.714	1.39	1.87	7.83	3.93	4.88	450	85	8	51	704
TEAM	BAA	OBP	SLG	OPS	WHIP	K/BB	K/9	P/PA	RS	H	2B	3B	HR	TB
NYY	.251	.330	.403	.733	1.38	1.92	7.29	3.91	4.20	488	99	9	60	785
BOS	.273	.341	.425	.766	1.42	2.09	6.94	3.84	4.38	531	113	12	53	827
CWS	.258	.337	.431	.768	1.43	1.88	7.45	3.83	4.18	404	75	8	60	675
CLE	.274	.343	.431	.774	1.45	2.10	7.41	3.79	4.30	446	89	7	51	702
TBR	.295	.368	.455	.823	1.62	1.45	5.89	3.76	4.61	602	124	10	61	929
BAL	.284	.358	.478	.836	1.55	1.47	5.88	3.83	4.04	568	101	15	86	957
KCR	.279	.359	.452	.811	1.55	1.62	6.87	3.88	4.83	625	118	13	81	1012

Yeesh. The A's bullpen let guys get on base like it meant the next guy heading to first base would win them a prize. Is it luck, or skill then, that the opponent's OPS is as high as it is, but the A's allowed so few runs? That RS (run support) is a bigger component than we think, too. That is the number of runs scored for the pitcher of record. In other words, the A's offense stunk on ice when the relief pitchers took the mound. Luck? Dunno. Maybe. The Angels and Rangers scored even fewer runs but the other teams in that group include the Royals, Devil Rays and Orioles.


The A's strikeout ratio and walks to strikeouts, along with the Tigers, are just weird. They don't K a lot of batters and they let a lot of hitters get on base via the walk. You can count strategy - pitching around certain hitters. If you have a good defense, pitching around the heart of a lineup might account for some double plays. But that's riding a fine line of disaster. It would just be easier is your hitters would score a damn run.


So. Okay. Defense important in keeping runs down, offense sure would help as clearly stated in the A's number of save opportunities. If your offense continually scores just enough runs for you to win - at some point the luck/skill will even out. The A's record in games decided by one run or less was 32-22. 7 more wins than the Angels and a whopping 12 more than the Mariners and 15 more than the Rangers. Of course the A's led MLB in the number of 1-run games.


They A's bullpen was deep and many pointed to that depth as a very strong reason the A's would make the playoffs and some had the A's winning the World Series. Curious, then that the A's bullpen clearly benefited more from their starting pitching than their offense. The starters kept games close and handed it over to the 'pen. The bullpen was sloppy in many cases and Huston Street was only 73% successful in save opportunities. Sloppy in the sense that the A's had stellar performances by Justin Duchscherer, Chad Gaudin, Joe Kennedy and Kiko Calero. Not so much from the rest of the 'pen.


And the big question of use of those pitchers in the bullpen is where we'll pick up this conversation when we discuss a new manager's role.