Monday, October 09, 2006
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TWO TRIBES: AN ALCS PREVIEW
TWO TRIBES
If you take nothing else away from this series of letter and words - heed this, the strike zone is the heart of the game of baseball. It is an eternal battle for control of the strike zone between the hitter and the pitcher and the political struggle of both with the umpire. Having written that, the strike zone will be the most important facet of the 2006 American League Championship Series because how both teams approach it.
The Tigers, by traditional playoff traits; 'momentum', 'experienced manager' and 'veteran leadership' - would appear to have the A's backed into a corner. The A's have been in that corner for months and they seem to use the THE GENTLE WAY to beat the opponent. Pitch well, play solid defense and wait for the moment to counter attack.
The Motor City Kitties come barreling into Oakland having dispatched the 'Evil Empire' (New York Mets, Yankees and Boston Red Sox - the true 'Axis of Evil') in four games. Detroit smacked the Yankees in the mouth and the Yankees were too stupefied to fight back. The Tigers clinched in Detroit and the celebration gave them a huge 'lift'. The A's won on a cold day and while we waited for the boys to come out - they stayed inside where the champagne was a better comfort.MANAGERS
The Tigers have Jim Leyland, who is a solid manager with three NL East division titles a World Series title with Florida via the Wild Card. Leyland has also some very bad years. Leyland seems to have a better grasp of sabermetrics in practice than A's manager Ken Macha. But the Tigers don't play that type of game on offense. The Tigers do user the utmost care with their pitchers and as a result - Tigers pitching is outstanding. Ken Macha, the bane of many an A's fan existence, chews gum and has two AL West division titles.
Both managers are prone to mistakes on the big stage.
The Tigers have 25 guys; some of whom you've heard of, others you might have and a bunch of guys you would have to look up before you drafted them for your fantasy team. There are some good back stories that relate to the Oakland A's (Jeremy Bonderman, Kenny Rogers) some guys that were thought to have fizzled out (Marcus Thames, Craig Monroe, Magglio Ordonez) and some developing careers (Justin Verlander, Joel Zumaya), there's also Ivan Rodriguez who might be crowned 'champion maker' since leaving Texas.THE A's
The A's don't run and they probably won't run on Ivan Rodriguez. Kenny Rogers has one of the better pick off moves in baseball and running on Joel Zumaya and Justin Verlander is risky. Most young pitchers do not have good pick off moves or moves to first base. But both get the ball to the plate so quickly it is a risk that the A's would have to weigh considerably. Is an extra base, or starting a runner worth the risk of erasing a base runner? Getting outs on the base paths is something the A's are capable of doing by way of the GIDP. Voluntarily limiting their base runners with the running game does not make much sense.
Where the A's have a distinct over the Tigers is their approach at the plate. The A's can wear out Tigers pitching if they consciously work the count. The downfall of the Yankees was an overaggressive approach at the plate with many innings at bat where fewer than 10 pitches were thrown. A little counting tool I like to use is that 15 pitches per inning by the opponent good should be acceptable, 20 pitches per inning by the opponent good and over 25 per inning very good. Do the quick arithmetic in your head; if the opposing pitcher averages more than 20 pitches an inning he will most likely be lifting in or before the sixth inning.THE TIGERS
And if the Tigers have a glaring weakness it is their bullpen outside of Joel Zumaya and Jamie Walker. Walker is having a fluke season and by all means, who cares if it is at this point? Walker is a fly ball pitcher (70 FB 45 GB) and closer Doug Jones is a rally waiting to happen. Jones can be had but he is effective in that role because he throws a lot, if not all, off speed pitches when batters are aggressive in late innings when behind. This works in the A's favor.
The Tigers are hackers, much like the Twins. They go looking for first pitch strikes and pitchers like Loaiza and Haren should have great games as they make hitters miss. But both make pitches miss with their fastballs and hard breaking pitches. It's going to be, literally, hit or miss. The A's bullpen is a string of off sped pitchers who get hitters to miss and chase. However, Leyland is astute and he could have the Tigers back off and ask his hitters to take a strike. The A's starters were able to play defense and let the Twins make outs. But the Tigers have enough power in their lineup up and down the order that one swing can make the difference in a playoff game.
The A's have a huge hole on the right side of the infield. With Mark Ellis, the human vortex, out for the post season, the A's rely on D'Angelo Jimenez to pick up the slack. Coupled with Nick Swisher at 1st, left-handed hitters can have a field day with ground balls to the right side. While I am constantly attacked for pointing out Nick Swisher's weaknesses, he has several and they are easily exploited. Particularly on defense. Swisher strays too far from the bag, making it difficult for pitchers and second basemen to make plays. Swisher's first instinct when catching the ball at first is to go into the 'splits'. While it might look good on camera - it is not the best way too field balls and with Jimenez and Scutaro throwing over, neither with strong or accurate arms, in this series it could be costly.THE MATCH GAME
The Twins and Tigers are more similar than the A's and Yankees. While the Twins did not play good baseball, the A's played solid baseball and were able to quickly dispatch them. The Yankees bombed the Tigers in Game 1 and then checked out. Swinging often and early, they made outs faster than a minute, eastern standard time.
If the A's continue to play solid baseball and limit mistakes on the mound and on defense it could be a short series. The A's offense has taken its opportunities in the post season whereas in the regular season they left men on base and hit into a ton of GIDP. The A's offense can do more with patience in this series than in the past. But the A's seem to come up big when they need to. The Tigers and A's both have similar line-ups in that there does not appear to be but one superior hitter in each lineup; Frank Thomas for the A's and Carlos Guillen for the Tigers. Interestingly, there has been talk of both players as the unsung MVPs of the American League. Again, where the Tigers have an advantage is in power. The Tigers have 7 hitters with more than 15 HR, while the A's have but 3.PROGNOSIS
I could care less about predictions from a team standpoint. What I hope for is a solid game by both teams. The A's have caught the breaks recently and that could be the difference maker.
In the ALCS I think the defense up the middle is going to be the biggest factor for the A's. Whereas in the ALDS I wrote that the offensive production for Marco Scutaro and Mark Ellis would be the factor. I still think Mark Kotsay and Huston Street are huge question marks for the A's. Kotsay's big hit was a soft line that Torii Hunter misplaced for an inside the park HR. Kotsay reached base a grand total of twice in the series and he and Kendall combined for 6 K's. Kendall led off all three games in the series with a K.
And, again, the hanging cloud is Rich Harden.
For the Tigers the A's have to shut down their outfielders - Ordonez, Granderson and Monroe at the plate. Though I expect Guillen and Marcus Thames to produce in spades. The Tigers have decided to pitch Kenny Rogers in game 3 rather than in game 2, where his record at the Coliseum is outstanding. Though, it does leave him available for Game 6 or 7 at the Coliseum if it comes to that.
Here are the expected pitching match-ups for the first 4 games;
posted by ZACHARY D MANPRIN at 10:40 PM
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