THE 2007 PITCHING STAFF: The Starting Rotation

Again, I have to point out the obvious - the A's don't put guys on the 25 Man Roster who have "good camps" in Spring Training. Billy Beane before and David Forst now, are precisely aware of who is going to make the 25 Man Roster. The only questions will come down to injury. Which the A's can have a dearth if someone sneezes too hard on the team bus.


Having written that - let's get on to the pitchers on the 40 Man Roster and the Non-Roster Invitees.

	40 Man Roster				Non-Roster Invitees
55	Joe Blanton	RHP		63	Dallas Braden	RHP
50	Kiko Calero	RHP		64	Michael Mitchell	RHP
46	Santiago Casilla	RHP		61	Erasmo Ramirez	LHP
58	Justin Duchscherer	RHP		70	Connor Robertson	RHP
56	Scott Dunn	RHP		54	Kazuhito Tadano	RHP
41	Alan Embree	LHP		68	Derek Thompson	LHP
47	Ron Flores	LHP
57	Chad Gaudin	RHP
51	Brad Halsey	LHP
40	Rich Harden	LHP
15	Dan Haren	RHP
37	Joe Kennedy	RHP
60	Shane Komine	RHP
25	Esteban Loaiza	RHP
52	Jay Marshall	LHP
62	Marcus McBeth	RHP
30	Dan Meyer	RHP
71	David Shafer	RHP
20	Huston Street	RHP
49	Jason Windsor	RHP
45	Jay Witasick	RHP

Let's take a look at the starters.

STARTERS

Rich Harden will more than likely be named the #1 starter. This may or may not be a good thing. Harden has still been unable to realize his talent and abilities due to constant injuries. Harden can be a dominating starter and he still has a huge upside. But he's also had trouble with his elbow. Ulnar nerve replacement is not out of the question. He did not pitch well in the post-season and he's one reach for an alarm clock to going to the DL. If Harden goes down the A's have slack to be taken up. However, long term, it is frustrating waiting for Guffman.
WHAT DO I THINK: Harden is a mixed bag - nobody but the gods of sports related injuries can peg down what Harden will do in 2007.


Danny Haren would actually be my choice as the A's first starter. Che Haren chews up innings and is a quality groundball/strikeout pitcher. Haren will more than likely pitch more than 200 innings and keep the A's in a lot of games. Haren gives up a lot of hits because he is around the plate so much. If Bob Geren manages the bullpen correctly he could coddle Haren into 15-16 wins. Again, though, Haren can be an anchor - the pitcher that saves the bullpen on some days.
WHAT DO I THINK: Haren is poised for a huge 2007.


Esteban Loaiza stumbled for most of 2006. Once the rays if summer came around he was gradually improving. August was far and away Loaiza's best month. After the All Star Break Loaiza appeared in six more games than the first half and threw 43 innings more. Loaiza is still going to be as flaky as Corn Flakes in Battle Creek, MI. Loaiza can't be much worse than he was last year. But you have to hope that he at least is healthy coming out of the gate.
WHAT DO I THINK: Sure, he could be worse, but that contract doesn't look as bad, does it?


Joe Blanton is about to burst at the seams. Fat Joe is going to be a pitcher that will coast through 30 or more starts and not really give you anything to bank on. He's going to be frustrating on some nights and solid on others. Save your "young pitcher" moniker for someplace else. Blanton and Haren are both 27 this year. Blanton could be on the trading block if anything happens in the minor leagues with Dallas Braden and Dan Meyer.
WHAT DO I THINK: Blanton will improve in 2007 but what you see in 2007 is more than likely what you see the rest of his career.


The 5th Starter.


This is really something that we can debate about, but the A's brass already knows who is going to be the 5th starter. Here are the likely culprits based on likelihood:


Joe Kennedy - A's only lefty starter.
Jason Windsor - Make or break as a starter in 2007 or career reliever.
Shane Komine - Can't wait for the Komine - Kurt Suzuki battery. Komine is on the bubble for a roster spot.
Chad Gaudin - I would like to see a swing man weave of Gaudin/Kennedy with Windsor/Komine in the wings. Gaudin is the A's true longman while Justin Duchscherer is just the guy who does the thing (whenever, wherever needed).
Dan Meyer - It would be nice to see a prospect to overcome two years of injury and make a positive contribution at the major league level. Long shot.


The A's do not have the best rotation in the AL West. The Angels have that. The Rangers play in Texas so they are handicapped. Seattle is thin. The A's really need innings eaten up more than anything. Their starters will not dominate teams over 162 games. It's going to be the starters who can get into the 7th inning that will make or break the A's season. The bullpen is where the A's may have an advantage in the AL West.


TOMORROW - THE BULLPEN AND THE REST OF IT