OH, NO! NOT LENNY!

BREAKING: THE MITCHELL REPORT (PDF)



This is the kind of signing that makes people cringe. People who understand statistics and logic and reason and reality. Not fans who think that if you wear an A's uniform you are the best player or pitcher in the league despite no evidence to support such a case.


Lenny DiNardo was signed to a one year deal for $900,000 further proving that if you throw with your left arm and have a left hand attached to it you can make a living as a Major League pitcher. The A's retained one of their pitchers from 2007 when you think they would be trying to swab the decks of anything they could of that albatross.


What A's fans will remember are the few games where DiNardo was 'lights' out. Actually he had one good game in August and two decent games in July. Other than that DiNardo appeared in 35 games as a starter and a reliever in 2007. In 35 games he allowed runs in 23 of those games. What the average A's fan that doesn't bother to look at stats (facts/truth) realize is that DiNardo ran into a large spate of luck brought to you by the old earned run versus run allowed.


What DiNardo does have a plus skill at is getting groundballs. His groundball to flyball rate is more than two to one which is good. However, he strikes out so few batters as to negate that skill at times. A solid pitcher strikes out close to a batter an inning as a reliever and a 10-15% drop in that rate as a starter. DiNardo struck out 112 batters in over 212 innings pitched.

SEASON	TEAM	RBI	SH	SF	IBB	HB	WP	BK	SB	CS	IR	IS	GDP	GB	FB	G/F
2004	Bos	18	1	1	1	2	1	0	1	1	9	5	1	57	18	3.17
2005	Bos	8	1	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	5	3	3	27	13	2.08
2006	Bos	28	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	1	6	2	9	92	33	2.79
2007	Oak	63	7	6	2	3	2	0	3	3	11	2	27	243	103	2.36
Total	--	117	9	9	5	6	5	0	5	5	31	12	40	419	167	2.51

DiNardo was signed to fill out the AAA Sacramento RiverCats rotation. Nothing more. He made a few Krusty Burgers over the league minimum as far as salary. DiNardo's performance in 2007 in no way justifies the A's signing him to a contract for 2008. The A's signed DiNardo because they are desperate. The let Joe Kennedy fade away on waivers toward the tail end of the season. By the way Eric Byrnes fans - there goes your legacy of that trade. Jay Witasick had been jettisoned long before that.


What boggles the mind is why the A's would pay for DiNardo when they have Brad Ziegler who had a GB/FB ratio of 3.74 in AAA last year and an astonishing 6.83 GB/FB ratios against right-handers. Ziegler's K rate was also better than DiNardo's. We will have a better idea when PECOTA comes out in a few weeks.

NAME	G	GS	W	L	Sv	QS	Hld	IP	H	ER	R	HR	BB	SO	K/9	P/GS	WHIP	ERA
Dan Haren	34	34	15	9	0	28	0	222.2	214	76	91	24	55	192	7.76	107.10	1.21	3.07
Joe Blanton	34	34	14	10	0	20	0	230.0	240	101	106	16	40	140	5.48	102.60	1.22	3.95
Lenny DiNardo	35	20	8	10	0	7	0	131.1	136	60	74	13	50	59	4.04	80.20	1.42	4.11
Chad Gaudin	34	34	11	13	0	15	0	199.1	205	98	108	21	100	154	6.95	97.00	1.53	4.42
Dallas Braden	20	14	1	8	0	2	1	72.1	91	54	59	9	26	55	6.84	84.60	1.62	6.72
	G	GS	W	L	Sv	QS	Hld	IP	H	ER	R	HR	BB	SO	K/9	P/GS	WHIP	ERA
Athletics	162	162	76	86	36	85	66	1448	1468	689	758	138	530	1036	6.44	95.90	1.38	4.28

DiNardo's ERA is skewed far and wide versus the other A's starters as he was the benefit of ruled errors in the field behind him. This is one of the tacit arguments of analysis; it really doesn't matter if the runs were earned or not - they still scored. A pitcher's job is to prevent runs. To prevent runs a pitcher needs outs. How those outs are obtained delves deeper into analysis - groundballs are better than flyballs, strike outs are better than groundballs; to a point. One pitch can get a groundball whereas a strikeout needs a minimum of three.


DiNardo was very lucky in 2007 and only 5 pitchers in MLB last year with more than 100 innings pitched had better bullpen support. Looking at VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) with more than 100 innings pitched DiNardo was 95th; behind Barry Zito, behind Joe Kennedy and Jarrod Washburn - none of which had good seasons in 2007.


Is DiNardo a bargain compared to those pitchers? You can't discount quality and DiNardo is far from quality. He is a live body. And apparently the A's feel the going rate for live bodies is $900,000.


If you want to trot out the standby for substandard lefty starters, "well, if he doesn't work out as a starter the A's can use him as a reliever and a LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY)."


That doesn't work either. While DiNardo was better as a reliever (only 35 innings to look at) his splits against left-handed hitters was WORSE than his splits against right-handed hitters overall. DiNardo also flopped down the stretch with each passing day adding more gasoline to the fire.

Overall	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Total	4.11	8	10	0	0	35	20	0	131.1	136	74	60	13	50	59	.278
As Starter	4.93	7	8	0	0	20	20	0	96.2	108	67	53	12	43	37	.293
As Reliever	1.82	1	2	0	0	15	0	0	34.2	28	7	7	1	7	22	.231
Opponent Batting	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Total	489	74	136	23	0	13	63	50	3	59	3	3	.278	.341	.405	.745
Right / Left	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs. Right	387	74	105	19	0	9	48	40	1	51	3	2	.271	.333	.390	.723
vs. Left	102	0	31	4	0	4	15	10	2	8	0	1	.304	.371	.461	.831
By Day/Month	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
April	1.93	0	1	0	0	5	0	0	9.1	8	2	2	1	1	5	.235
May	1.72	1	1	0	0	7	1	0	15.2	11	6	3	0	5	10	.200
June	3.12	2	2	0	0	5	5	0	26.0	25	13	9	2	14	9	.272
July	4.15	2	2	0	0	6	5	0	30.1	32	17	14	2	8	13	.267
August	4.78	3	1	0	0	6	6	0	32.0	36	17	17	6	13	12	.300
September	7.50	0	3	0	0	6	3	0	18.0	24	19	15	2	9	10	.353
Pre-All Star	2.72	3	5	0	0	19	7	0	59.2	55	27	18	4	23	32	.252
Post-All Star	5.27	5	5	0	0	16	13	0	71.2	81	47	42	9	27	27	.299

The DiNardo signing is another nail in the coffin of the A's inability to produce league average or even marginal players from within their own organization. The A's used to be very good at plucking players from other organization that slipped through the cracks. The A's have never been good at fielding players in their own organization to serve that role. You really need to sit back as a fan and wonder why the medical staff was overhauled after the season but not the Player Development department or minor league administration...