ELEPHANTS IN OAKLAND
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Pitching, Defense and the Three Run Jimmy-Jack


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Wednesday, November 02, 2005
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WHERE IS BILLY BEANE'S MIND?



    THE MORAL LAW CAUSES THE PEOPLE TO BE IN COMPLETE ACCORD WITH THEIR RULER, SO THAT THEY WILL FOLLOW HIM REGARDLESS OF THEIR LIVES, UNDISMAYED BY ANY DANGER.

    - The Art of War -



Just when I thought I could relax and start pumping out stats and creating some new features the A's start making all of their moves.

A reminder that tonight is the Warren Eukel Teacher Trust fundraiser featuring a presentation by Gary Huckabay entitled Player Performance and Contract Valuation. James Click of Baseball Prospectus will also be on hand.


6:30 PM, Wednesday, November 2, 2005
Rocco's Ristorante and Pizzeria
2909 Ygnacio Valley Road
Walnut Creek, California



One of the perpetual gaffs that readers of Elephants in Oakland make is expecting consistent glowing assessment of the Oakland A's Baseball Club. This is a blog. This is not a public relations tool that tries to capitalize on sports fan behavior and tries to make a profit. These are my thoughts and my opinions. To suggest that I render all thought to the alter of the A's front office is asinine, ridiculous, moronic and as far fetched as anyone thinking that Reese Witherspoon is attractive or talented.

I have received a handful of emails accusing me on not 'drinking the Kool-Aid' and essentially refusing to cow tow (thanks jmoney - MS Word did my spell check) to Billy Beane. I found it odd that at least three people made that assertion. More prevalent was the thought that phrase is stupid, historically inaccurate and the formulation of a poisoned mind. The Kool-Aid reference is supposedly supposed to trace back to the Jonestown. In Jonestown, they used Flavor Aid, not Kool Aid.

Maybe it's because I've been an A's fan before Billy Beane ever wore and A's uniform. Maybe it's because my favorite A's player for some time was Steve McCatty because I had his Granny Goose playing card thumb tacked to my bulletin board growing up. But, why would I discharge critical thinking skills when it comes to being a fan and rooting for my favorite team? Why would I read about a transaction or survey box scores and simply shrug my shoulders at the outcomes?

That is not analysis, that is not honest and that is not what a fan should be. As I have declared many times; no I do not expect the A's to win 162 games each season. I'm a fan. I expect them to figure out a way to win 163 games. Any less of an expectation on my part, and therefore I should feel - on your part, indicates you are not a fan. Merely a hanger on or simply have not given up yourself, but not your brain, to the need.

The need of being a fan.



On to the business at hand.

Andre Ethier was named the Topps George M. Trautman Award winner for the Texas League. Ethier continues to do well in the Arizona Fall League. But before anyone jumps Albert Pujols conclusions...IT'S THE ARIZONA FALL LEAGUE.


PLAYERGABRH2B3BHRRBITBBBSOSBCSAVGOBPSLG
Ethier19671525522194018800.373.506.597
Barton18581515411924151410.259.413.414
Suzuki92626300595700.231.344.346
.................
PLAYERWLERAGGSGFSVTBFIPHRERHRBBSOAVG
Kohn006.30902042101377216.317
Lynch105.9190214910.21387249.289
Komine110.9644007018.218420214.265


The A's added a hitting coach and Mychael Urban has a consistent amount of slack on the leash Billy Beane holds him on. The A's hired Gerald Perry as hitting coach. Of course the headline is 'A's Hire Successful Hitting Coach'. Urban goes on to tout the Batting Averages teams had under Perry and the ever retarded Batting Average with Runners in Scoring Position. Huh. Nothing that really points to the hitter Perry had developed over a period of time or the fact that his Mariners totals are skewed by Ichiro Suzuki and the fluky 2001 Mariners season.

At this point anything is better than Dave Hudgens.

The A's also made some rotations in the coaching box. Bob Geren is now bench coach...gee, wonder if the A's are grooming him? Rene Lachmann is now first base coach and Brad Fischer moves to bullpen coach. No word, yet, on Ron Washington's status.


For anyone who was looking for a bright side to the rehiring of Ken Macha, hey, at least Billy Beane negotiated a cheaper contract. When the A's do fire him, it won't cost as much.

Which is good, because the A's were able to ditch Scott Hatteberg, though, Susan Slusser is praying that she gets her quote machine back, by buying out his option for a mere $250,000. Rather than $2.7 Million. Hatteberg was done as an everyday player in 2001. Everybody in baseball knows that except the A's front office, Ken Macha and of course, Hatteberg himself. Could he be a decent 70-85 game platoon guy? Sure, if you can risk the lack of production at the plate and the substandard defense in the field. Hatteberg can get on base, but he has become a singles hitter with the occasional liner that finds the gap. There are more than a few AAA players that can do that job and have a chance to improve at the league minimum salary.

Just as the A's rid themselves of a possible $2.7 Million, they gave it to Jay Witasick. $1 Million in 2006, $1.5 Million in 2007 and a club option/snicker/giggle fest at $2 Million for 2008. There's a $250,000 buyout for 2008.

Witasick is the ever present one pitch pony leaguer who puts up decent numbers as a mop-up right-hander but crumbles under pressure. The A's have Kiko Calero as the primary set-up man, or if you like, a top-sided Chad Bradford. Why the A's ventured on Witasick for $2.75 Million boggles the mind. You would have to think there is a GM or two who have a thing for over-priced right-handed relievers and Beane is hoping to trade Witasick in the next few weeks.

 WLERAGGSIPHRERHRBBSOH9HR9W9K9WHIP
MLB Totals: 10 years30414.5434956677.1719393342923166049.551.224.208.031.53
Minor League Totals: 9 years38313.4615593616.1516282237232236627.530.343.269.671.20
MLB Average: 10 years344.5434567713934931609.551.224.208.031.53



Nothing there points to anything that a journeyman minor leaguer could not do at 2/3 the price. The A's have a few in their own system and the list of 6 Year Free Agents is bursting with arms to grab. Kerry Ligtenberg, Brad Clontz, Carlos Hernandez, T.J. Matthews (hey, you had to trade Mark McGwire for somebody, right?). Even Micah Bowie, a lefty is out there to be had.

Eric Chavez won his 5th gold glove. Adrian Beltre in Seattle had a better year than Chavez, but often the reigning winner has to be dethroned. But when the nearest 3rd baseman include Joe Crede (dives for balls hit right at him) and Brandon Inge (a catcher, a CATCHER) - how can you not retain the gold glove?

Chavez' decision to avoid shoulder surgery is mixed in hyperbole. While the A's physicians agree that Chavez can continue playing with his shoulder as is, they would have preferred to go in. Docs tend to be that way. Chavez, though, seems to want to hang on to his excuse. He's also still bitching about it -

"I didn't have the surgery...For me, it's so unclear what is wrong with it, and I want to put it off as long as possible. From Day 1 of spring training, we'll limit the throws. No doubt in the next five years, I've got to get a surgery."


NOTE: It does not have to be clear to an athlete what is wrong with their body. That is why certain people go to school for many years, go to a specialized school, inter, go through a residency, decide whether to start a practice or work for a hospital. At some point those people are called physicians and some go into a specialized form of medicine. Orthopaedics and Sports Medicine are examples. Those people, with all that knowledge and experience, those are the people who would know. You can have MRIs, X-Rays and CT scans up the ying or the yang but without an arthroscopic peek by a surgeon A's fans can just latch on to the Eric Chavez excuse bandwagon.

It is nice to know some have finally decided enough was enough. Dayn Perry does admit he's wrong very often, either.

Comments:

Eric Chavez- your 2006 third base Gold Shoulder Sling winner.

 

Agree with pretty much everything Zach, except that actually, you are not "kowtowing" to Billy Beane.

 

Forget Dayn Perry- when have you ever admitted you were wrong, Man Prin?

You've had lots of opportunities but haven't cashed any in that I can remember.

 

Oh my God. Thank you Derek for posting...My night would not be complete unless you put your worthless 2 cents in.

 

Derek, fuck you.

Write whatever you want about ideas or thoughts or opinions, but the moment you make it personal and go after Zach's name - when you're too much of a pussy to put yours out there...shows you're a gutless coward who doesn't know a fucking thing.

For the hundreth time, Derek, point out when Zach has been wrong. And make it factual, not Zach put his opinion out there and you don't agree with it.

C'Mon, coward. C'mon pussy. Get to work you maggot.

 

I know I am probably setting myself up for an attack by those here who always know so much more about everything and will defend Zach at the slightest indication his opinion is being questioned.

The many flaws in this organization (not to mention the supposed tools of the organization, i.e. Slusser) have been pointed out over and over and over again on EIO, such as Perry, Hatteberg, Macha, Beane, Chavez (just to name today's list of unsatisfactory organization members).

So can someone explain how it is reasonable to "expect them to find a way to win 163 games"?

Flame away. Thanks.

 

Ed -

I think you need to re-read the piece with a sense of humor.

 

Reasonable doesn't enter into it.

Fan is short for fanatic.

 

We all have a sense of humor. It's what keeps us from being suicidal over Beane's immolation of the team. It's sorta like seeing a guy have a beautiful girl, who'd YOU'D know how to treat right, and you see him treating her like crap and she still STAYS with him !!

Doesn't it tick you off that despite Beane SOMEHOW having a team make the playoffs a couple years, he decides at that time 'it's a crapshoot' (and it isn't) so losing ... again ... and again ... and again ... is OK? And when the systemic problems expand into the regular season, we are still expected to 'trust the numbers' and remain happy?

I have no problem nudging Zach when he is monitoring the Macha-meter while the team was going something like 50-10. Somebody was doing something right, and if you blame Macha for screwing up, then you should give him some credit when he isn't. BUT. I have hated Macha for a long time. AND I hate the lock-step Beanian philosophy of 'trust the numbers'. Hey, you don't have to steal a lot of bases, but sometimes it is a good idea. You don't have to bunt all the time, but sometimes, it's a good idea. Sometimes, especially when your team can't score for shit and you are just praying for 3 runs so your pitcher has a shot, it is an even better idea. When your team obviously is one that will not have one single player will hit 25 meaningful homeruns, then a bit 'o small ball (some would call it baseball) is an excellent concept.

I don't agree with Zach all the time. Check that. I don't agree with Zach a lot of times. However, he always articulates well. Ed has had a lot of good input as well. One does not necessarily become a Beanian just because he disagrees with Zach. (Would that make one a Zachian?).
Zach DOES, at times, seem to wish to dispense with the entire team. Sometimes, I think it not a bad idea !!! There has been a lot of mileage gleaned from the "Moneyball" concept, as an organizational concept. Here's my take on that: You can have all the nifty mission statements you want. Your people can perform in the trenches, and keep you profitable. However, if you wish to get over the top, and grab the ring, you MUST have people in place who are trained, willing, and ready. I see about a half-team that is trained and ready. I see about a half-team that is willing. The other half is a continuing source of embarrassment. When you are knocked out of the playoffs because of such silliness as not sliding, not touching bases, and not running until called out, that is called sytemic, and that is 100% the fault of management at the highest level. I could give a rip about OBP if you have no clear concept regarding getting the runner home. Beane has an 8-cylinder car running on 6 cylinders. It'll run OK, and even run better that a bunch of 4- and 6-cylinder cars. What it WON'T do is win the race, when all that is left in the race are other 8-cylinder cars, and they don't have sytemic situations to deal with.

 

That's 'systemic', not 'sytemic'. Sorry.

 

One more thing before I run: I don't want to hear any more about Oakland being a small-market team. Once upon a time, Charlie Finley had the highest or second-highest payroll in the game. Of course, he was also winning quite a few pennants, as well as 3 Series in a row. Remarkable coincidence. And when he traded all of his talent away, he stopped winning. Another remarkable coincidence, to be sure.
You don't have to be the Yankees, but you DO have to retain the critical help. I can think of no greater errors in my own business that either having the wrong manager in place (and I have), or letting critical employees leave for greener pastures.
Benjamin Franklin called in 'penny wise and pound foolish', and if Beane can learn the lesson, then maybe, just maybe, some yippee skippee will happen around here.

And we don't need to win 163. We need to win a playoff spot + 11. Do that every year and I'll be happy.

 

Jesus Christ - do you ever stop fucking whining?

WHINE WHINE WHINE WHINE WHINE.

You think you have all the answers but are writing a billious blog rather than being involved in MLB.

This team is killing you, go and have a lie down or something. God only knows why you 'support' this team, becuase it's actually the last thing you do, you are just another pathetic loser who gets his kicks by playing 'everyday manager/GM'.

God knows what you'll be if we ever win another WS, your life will cease to exist and you'll go up in flames as your billious gases explode becuase they no longer have an oulet.

You are a classic case of a man who uses his intelligence in a negative rather than constructive way, becuase he's basically a very unhappy guy.

You really need to turn your life around.

 

Yet another anon with all the answers.

Why do you come here, then, Anon?

You must find that there is some credible information here if you keep coming back.

Why the need to make this personal?

Maybe Anon and Derek happen to be people with a tie to a pathetic A's site trying to make money and thinks this will drive up revenue.

 

I don't get it either.

A guy has a blog to write his ideas and opininions and all people want to do is dump on the guy, not the ideas, the guy.

I think expecting a baseball team to win 163 games is hilarious. I know that feeling because I played for a number of years. It really is like that for players, too. They know they are going to win more than they lose. But they expect to win every game.

The front office doesn't have all the answers, even the A's. And players are not heroes, they are just people with strange jobs. The teams are always going to be making money, but when guys are signed to big contracts big things are expected of them. Most never live up to those deals.

My dad grew up in the 1960's fighting authority and I'm the same way. What I don't understand is how some people call themselves fans and don't do everything they can to make sure their team does every thing the they can to win ball games.

Signing guys to million dollar deals just because it's easier than doing soem homework and finding a similar cheaper guy is just lazy behavior.

 

hey zach, you seem to disagree with Chavez winning the gold glove, and you say beltre had a better year, but the article you referenced even said Inge had the best year, and your only comment is that he is a "catcher". Umm, no, this year he was a third baseman, and a pretty darn good one apparently. The rest of the post was great, but you were wrong to imply that Beltre had the best year (I know you didn't say it, but at least that is what I thought until I read the BP article). If we are so into numbers (and us being rational kids, I think that is a fair statement), its wrong to dismiss Inge's season just because he is a "catcher". And if you want to say it is a fluke, then chavez has been going strong awhile now, and while beltre has him beat the past two years, its only by 4 FRAA, and that was all this year, which since we have dismissed Inge's season as a fluke year, jumping on Beltre's first year as a "better" defensive third baseman seems hypocritical.

 

And by the way, thats not to dump on Zach, the rest of the post was great, even with my appreciation for Hatteberg's approach to hitting, its tough argue the facts on him... Just thought I'd point something out that I thought was an incorrect implication.

 

sorry, just one more thing.

I don't know how many of you went to the pizza feed last night, but it was great. Just listing to Gary Huckabay and James Click (and others) chit chat on baseball was great. Its too bad he couldn't even fill up the 43 available spots...

 

Hey Ruben -

Here's what BP said:
"Chavez is a four-time winner who, for whatever reason, doesn’t do as well in the BP fielding stats as his reputation in life would suggest."

Here's what Zach said:
"...often the reigning winner has to be dethroned."

What are you confused by?

Beltre, according to the stats listed by BP was even with Chavez.

Beltre also came over from the NL, why is switching leagues such a great excuse for hitters and not defenders?

Brandon Inge was a darn good 3rd baseman? He was 6th in the AL at 3rd base as far as VORP and 12th in MLB. That's not darn good. That's slightly better than average, but better than a replacement player.

But to get back to your thoughts on implications, the post was deeper than that and you skimmed the surface.

Zach's multi-functional catcher list had Inge as a candidate. The implication was that a catcher can play another postion rather than waste away behind the plate.

Keep reading and you get to the conclusion of the point in the next link - "Perhaps it’s time we come around to the idea that Eric Chavez is going to soldier on as a very good player and that superstardom will forever elude him."

There's the point. Chavez has been getting by on reputation with the Gold Gloves at defense, blaming his offensive woes on his shoulder he refuses to have operated on and A's fans keep thinking he is a star when he is not.

 

No-one thinks Cahvez is a 'star' they think he's a good bat, and one of the best defensive 3B's in the game.

It's the fucking idiots, like the guy who writes this blog and the syciphanys that lick hus nutsack that blame Chavez for the A's woes.

Just a bunch of clueless fucking idiots who like NFL fans with the QB, dump on the biggest earner.

Fuck you all, clueless idiots.

 

Yet another Anon with no clue who just wants to bash Zach.

Gee, nobody thinks Chavez is a star? Maybe that's why 60% of all the A's marketing has his face on it.

Here's the rest of that article from Baseball Prospectus - those idiot nutsack lickers;
"Chavez has notable platoon weaknesses, and at times, despite occasionally strong walk rates and an organizational mandate, he can be a profoundly undisciplined hitter at the plate. I once had it in my head that he’d have a run of .300/.400/.600 seasons, but it’s becoming less likely that he’ll ever achieve those numbers, even for one year. Chavez is still a quality ballplayer, but when he’s your best hitter your team will have trouble scoring runs."

 

Yeah, Zach said the winner had to be "dethroned", but it seemed as though that was a pretty sarcastic comment. Chavez has not turned out to be the hitter all of us thought he would be, but I don't think there is any way you can take away the Gold Gloves. He is not coasting on reputation defensively, and even with a bum shoulder was outstanding, either by the numbers or watching the game.

Like I said, I liked the rest of the post, so no, I didn't miss the deeper meaning, I just found a minor flaw I wanted to point out.

And considering my post was in reference to Gold Gloves, yes, Inge WAS a good 3B this year. Was he good overall? I never said that, I didn't even do the research. But that wasn't my point. By the numbers, if anyone should have dethroned Chavez, it should be Inge, not Beltre. He should not be punished just because he played a different position last year, even catcher.

And seriously, whats up with the anon rips? who cares that they logged in as anon? They are wusses you say? I don't see anyone listing their phone number to take calls assaulting their manhood. Jeez, its a blog, the internet is all about anonyminity...

 

To the person who said most people don't think of Chavez as a star:

I remember at least two baseball prospectus writers that listed Eric Chavez as their MVP selection before the season started. Miguel Tejada (a former MVP if you recall) was allowed to leave in order to keep Chavez. Chavez should be a superstar but he has never reached the next level. In fact, he regressed significantly in 2005:
OPS+
2000: 118
2001: 131
2002: 122
2003: 132
2004: 132
2005: 106

 

u could say that part of chavez' regression was due in part to no real power threat behind him....aka erubiel durazo...on the other hand u could also say his complete lack of discipline is the reason he isnt that good & it makes durazo & tejada's yrs look much much better than they initially do....personally chavez took the punk way out & not taking a surgery that he was said to have all yr long...then came up with another excuse on why not to have it....gee & i wondered why the a's didnt win..oh wait no i didnt...with players like chavez leading you..u dont need cancer ballplayers like manny ramirez...excuse makers like chavez who are likeable to writers like slusser are all you need....

 

I love that - 'I'm a fan - I expect them to find a way to win 163 games'. I think that echoes with fans of all sports.

Anyone else put it together than fan is short for fanatic?

That's what's great about slivers of baseball like these blogs; you get stat analysis from people not afraid to turn look for more than what the media points them to.

Rant on, boy, rant on!

 

By the way, the 'Where is Billy Beane's Mind' title is from the Pixies' 'where is my mind'.

 

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2005 Wrap-up
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WATSON - Part 1
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